23 February, 2011

AP Samachar - 23 February 2011

Does India have a Prime Minister?
February 23, 2011   7:23:02 PM

Swapan Dasgupta

There is a British parliamentary tradition that India should seriously consider adopting: The Prime Minister’s Question Time. Each Wednesday the House of Commons is in session, the PM has to answer questions posed by the Leader of the Opposition and backbench MPs for 30 minutes. These 30 minutes are potentially harrowing for any Prime Minister, including glib performers like Tony Blair and David Cameron. The reason is that there is no advance intimation of the issues likely to be raised, and these could range from a sharply-worded poser on some aspect of foreign policy to an indignant demand to know why a local hospital had been closed. Like the Boy Scouts, the Prime Minister has to ‘be prepared’ for every eventuality.

The purpose of Prime Minister’s Questions is not merely to showcase a verbal duel between the leaders of two political parties — the best debater doesn’t always prevail at the general election. The idea is to institutionalise the accountability of the Prime Minister as the head of the entire Government. Individual Ministers carry their departmental responsibilities but the buck stops with the Prime Minister. He is accountable for the entire Government and he has to know its every arm.

It is a commentary on the state of Indian democracy that Manmohan Singh’s interaction with the editors of TV channels last Wednesday was accompanied by a degree of satisfaction that he had finally broken his silence. That the Prime Minister had actually chosen the path of reticence in the face of a political crisis of enormous magnitude was itself intriguing. Surely, he owed the people of India and its Parliament some explanation. That he chose to route his version of current developments through a regulated televised interaction — after mildly berating the media for sapping the nation’s self-confidence with its focus on the negative — is even more revealing. Since Singh is naturally media-shy and one-liners don’t come to him naturally, the choice of forum suggests an even greater discomfiture with the chaotic and insolent ways of Parliament.

The choice of occasion and platform is, however, an incidental footnote. What is far more significant is the manner in which Singh has subtly redefined the role of a Prime Minister in the age of coalitions. That he is not the grand, imperial Prime Minister in the style of Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and, at a pinch, even Atal Bihari Vajpayee was well known. The circumstances of his appointment to the top job were different and unique. At best, and not least on account of his seniority and intellectual erudition, he was expected to be primus inter pares (first among equals). The tragedy of Singh is that he has recast the position of the Prime Minister as a departmental head: The man responsible for the Ministry called Prime Minister’s Office.

Had constitutional improvisation been allowed, Singh should have been re-designated as Chairman of the Cabinet. The prefix Prime Minister is ill-suited to him.

Unfortunately, this is a reality that many in this country have not yet fully recognised. Many of the questions thrown at him by the editors were premised on the belief that Singh occupies the hallowed post of Prime Minister as the country has known it. Why, he was asked, did he reappoint A Raja to the Cabinet in 2009? Why did he not take proactive steps to stop the Commonwealth Games loot fest? Why was he so tardy in ensuring the cancellation of a sweetheart deal between ISRO and Devas?

These were questions based on flawed assumptions. They were about as flawed as the automatic equation between, say, the Mughal Emperor Jehangir and his descendant Emperor Shah Alam. On paper they were both Mughal emperors with the same grand titles. But, did Emperor carry the same meaning in 1765, when the East India Company was allowed to exercise its sovereignty over Bengal in the Emperor’s name, as it did in 1603 when Sir Thomas Roe pleaded for permission to trade?

To be fair, Singh didn’t try to pretend what he was not. He confessed that “some compromises had to be made in managing coalition politics” and that his choice of Raja in 2009 was dictated by the wishes of M Karunanidhi. But he didn’t object because “I had no reason, frankly speaking, to feel that anything seriously wrong had been done.” On the 2G spectrum sale, he admitted to his personal preference for the auction route. But when Raja cited the endorsement of the TRAI and the Telecom Commission for the first-come-first-serve route, Singh said, “I did not feel I was in a position to insist (on) auctions.”

The conclusion is obvious: As the head of one department, Singh was loath to tell another department how to go about its business.

Likewise, wouldn’t it have been presumptuous for the PMO to tell ISRO and the Department of Space how to go about its S-band transactions? Yes, there was a lot of foot-dragging between the decision to scrap the contract in July 2010 and perfecting the paperwork. But the PMO wasn’t involved; it was all the doing of the space babus.

Only, in this case the Minister for the Department of Space was the same as the Minister in charge of the PMO: Manmohan Singh.

Singh conceded to “irregularities” in the Government and an “ethical deficit”. But he wasn’t responsible.

Maybe the Prime Minister was. But, does India have a Prime Minister?
क्या देश से भी ब़डा है वोट बैंक
बीते गुरुवार को २६/११ को मुंबई में हुए आतंकी हमले में शहीद हुए मेजर संदीप उन्नीकृष्णन के चाचा के मोहनन ने संसद भवन के नजदीक विजय चौक के पास आत्मदाह कर लिया। दिल दहला देने वाली इस घटना ने हर देशभक्त नागरिक को झकझोर कर रख दिया। उनके पास मिली डायरी में उन्होंने अपनी प़ीडा का इज़हार किया है। मलयाली भाषा में उन्होंने लिखा है कि ‘जिन आतंकवादियों ने उनके भतीजे को गोलियों से भून डाला, उनको फांसी देने में सरकार ढिलाई बरत रही है। इस मुद्दे पर राजनीति की जा रही है, इससे उनका परिवार दुःखी है। यह घटना सरकार की आंखेंंंं खोलने के लिए काफी है। क्योंकि अन्य कई आतंकी घटनाआें में फांसी की सजा काट रहे आतंकियों के खिलाफ फैसला लेने में सरकार की अनिर्णय की स्थिति और मामला जानबूझकर लटकाये जाने से शहीदों के परिजन बेहद आहत हैं। इतना ही नहीं शहीद परिवारों के लिए की गई घोषणाआें तक को पूरा नहीं किया जा सकता है। इस हीलाहवाली के खिलाफ पी़डत परिवारों ने समयसमय पर गुस्से का इज़हार भी किया है पर वह नक्कारखाने में तूती की आवाज बनकर रह गई है। इसी उपेक्षा और हताशा की परिणति है मोहनन के आत्मदाह की घटना। चाहे कारगिल का युद्ध रहा हो अथवा देश के विभिन्न हिस्सों में हुई आतंकी घटनाएं, हमारे जवानों ने जान की बाजी लगाकर उनके मंसूबों को त़ोडा है। क्या विडम्बना है कि हमारे नेता शहीदों को श्रद्धांजलि देते हुए आतंकियों के खिलाफ क़डी कार्रवाई की घोषणा करते हैं और उनके परिवारों को सहयोग का आश्वासन देते हैं, लेकिन अमल करने के नाम पर सरकारें सुस्त होती है। समयसमय पर पी़डत परिवार इस ओर सरकार का ध्यान आकृष्ट कराते हैं, जो अखबारों की सुर्खियां बनती हैं किन्तु सरकारी स्तर पर उनकी समस्याएं दूर करने की दिशा में प्रयास नहीं होते।
आतंकी घटनाआें में फांसी की सजा पाये आतंकियों को फांसी देने का सवाल मोहनन की तरह अनेक शहीदों के परिजन उठाते रहे हैं। संसद तक में इसकी गूंज उठ चुर्की है। वैसे जिन आतंकियों को फांसी की सजा मिल चुकी है, उन पर कार्रवाई का मामला गृह मंत्रालय और राष्ट्रपति भवन के बीच शटलकॉक बना हुआ है। ऐसे में शहीद परिवारों का आक्रोश स्वाभाविक है। मोहनन के इस कृत्य को मैं व्यक्तिगत रूप से कायरतापूर्ण कदम मानता हूं। उन्हें अपना क्षोभ जताने के लिए आत्मदाह की जगह पूरी दुनिया में सबसे लोकप्रिय गांधीवादी तरीका अपनाना चाहिए था। लेकिन जो मूल सवाल है, उस पर पक्षविपक्ष किसी की भी प्रतिक्रिया नहीं आ रही है, जो दुःखद है। कल से संसद का बजट सत्र शुरू हो गया है। देखते हैं, सवाल उठता है या हंगामे और सरकारी कामकाज के मुद्दों के बीच दब कर रह जाता है। शहीदों के परिजन तल्ख लहजे में कहते हैं कि २४ दिसंबर, १९९९ में आईसी ८१४ विमान का आतंकियों ने अपहरण कर लिया था। उसमें सवार यात्रियों को बचाने के लिए तत्कालीन सरकार ने जेल में बंद तीन खूंखार आतंकवादियों मुश्ताक अहमद जरगर, अहमद उमर सईद शेख और मौलाना मसूद अजहर को कंधार ले जाकर छ़ोडा था, जिसमें हमारे प़डोसी देश की अहम भूमिका थी।
सवाल है कि विभिन्न आतंकी हमलों के लिए जिम्मेदार फांसी सजायाफ्ता आतंकियों को फांसी देने में सरकार हीलाहवाली क्यों कर रही है? इससे आतंकियों का मनोबल टूटने की जगह ब़ढ रहा है। खुफिया एजेंसियां समयसमय पर देश के विभिन्न शहरों में आतंकी खतरे से सचेत कर रही हैं और सरकार आतंकवाद के खिलाफ निर्णायक ल़डाई के लिए प्रतिबद्ध भी दिखती है, पर जेल में बंद इन आतंकियों के खिलाफ क़डी कार्रवाई न कर पाने के कारण वह देश और दुनिया के उन देशों के बीच क़डा संदेश नहीं दे पा रही है, जो आतंकवाद के सफाये की जंग में शामिल है। उल्टे इस पर राजनीति हो रही है। इसके विपरीत पी़डत परिवारों को सुविधाएं मुहैया कराने में सरकार की उदासीनता किसी से छुपी नहीं है।
मैं पाठकों को याद दिलाना चाहूंगा कि संसद पर हमले में शहीद जवानों को श्रद्धांजलि देने के लिए हर साल शोकसभा होती है, जिसमें प्रधानमंत्री से लेकर ब़डे नेता शामिल होते हैं किन्तु सरकार की गैरजिम्मेदाराना नीति के चलते १३ दिसंबर, २००८ को अपने गुस्से का इज़हार करने के लिए इसमें पी़डत परिवार के लोग शामिल ही नहीं हुए थे। उस समय खूब शोर मचा था किन्तु सरकार ने उससे भी कोई सबक नहीं लिया। इतना ही नहीं, कारगिल में शहीद जवानों के परिवारों को सरकार ने पेट्रोल पम्प और गैस एजेंसी देने की घोषणा की थी। किन्तु ३७ परिवारों को ये सुविधाएं अब तक नहीं मिल सकी है। ये केन्द्र और राज्य सरकारों के बीच खींचतान के चलते इन सुविधाआें से वंचित हैं।
इतना ही नहीं, मुंबई हमले के एक साल बाद संसद में शहीदों को श्रद्धांजलि देते समय भाजपा के वरिष्ठ नेता लालकृष्ण आडवाणी ने आरोप लगाया था कि अब तक केवल एक चाेैथाई पी़डतों को ही मदद दी गई है। तब सरकार के पास कोई जवाब नहीं था। राज्यसभा में जब आरोप लगाया गया कि मदद के लिए दी गयी धनराशि के सरकारी चेक बाउंस हो रहे हैं, तो संसद में सन्नाटा छा गया था। उस दौरान गृहमंत्री ने नौकरशाही की विफलता का रोना रोया था। दुःखद तो यह है कि मुंबई हमले में मारे गये इकहत्तर लोगों के परिवारों के बैंक डिटेल राज्य सरकार केन्द्र को नहीं भेज सकी थी, जिनके लिए सरकारी मदद की घोषणा की गयी थी। हमारे नेताआें का चाल चरित्र और चेहरा ब़डा अनोखा है। अपने इस कथन के समर्थन में मैं कुछ उदाहरण रख रहा हूं, जोनीरत्रीर विवेचन के लिए काफी हैं।
मुंबई हमले के दौरान बिहार निवासी मोहम्मद तौफीक शेख उर्फछोटू चाय वाले ने छत्रपति शिवाजी स्टेशन पर जान पर खेलकर दर्जनों यात्रियों की जिंदगियां बचायी थीं। घायलों को कंधे पर बिठाकर अस्पताल पहुंचाया था। उस समय तत्कालीन रेलमंत्री ने छोटू को रेलवे में नौकरी देने का वायदा किया था किन्तु इस घटना के दो साल बाद भी उसे नौकरी नहीं मिल सकी है। इतना ही नहीं जुलाई, २००६ में आतंकियों ने मुंबई की लोकल ट्रेनों में धमाके किये, जिसमें २०० सेें अधिक यात्री मारे गये थे। उसमें कल्याणी के पति भी मारे गये थे। वे शिपिंग कॉरपोरेशन ऑफ इंडिया में काम करते थे। दो छोटी बच्चियों के साथ आज कल्याणी आर्थिक तंगी झेल रही है किन्तु उन्हें पति के स्थान पर अब तक नौकरी नहीं मिल सकी है। इसी तरह संसद पर हुए हमले में शहीद एक सुरक्षाकर्मी की पत्नी जयंती पेट भरने के जुग़ाड में दरदर भटक रही है वहीं वाच एंड वार्ड विभाग के कर्मी मातवर सिंह के परिवार की दिल्ली सरकार द्वारा घोषित सहायता सात साल बाद भी नहीं मिल सकी है। इतना ही नहीं संसद पर हमले में मारे गये सुरक्षाकर्मियों के परिवार के लोगों का भी आरोप है कि हमले के सूत्रधार अफजल को फांसी पर लटकाए जाने के मामले में राजनीति हो रही है।
देश की सीमाआें की रक्षा हो अथवा आतंकी हमला व कोई त्रासदी, हमारे जवान अपने कर्तव्य का पालन करते हुए हंसतेेहंसते जान की बाजी लगा देते हैं। उन्हें अपने फर्ज के आगे परिवार तक की चिंता नहीं होती। किन्तु शहादत के बाद सरकार का उपेक्षापूर्ण रवैया शेष जवानों का मनोबल कमजोर करता है। यही कारण है कि सेना में भर्ती के प्रति लोगों का आकर्षण घट रहा है। एक रिकॉर्ड के अनुसार सेना में अफसरों के १११५३ पद रिक्त हैं तो लगभग १५०० अफसरों ने वीआरएस मांगा है। एयरफोर्स के २५० पायलट नौकरी छ़ोडने का आवेदन कर चुके हैं, जिसको लेकर हंगामा मच चुका है। इसलिए सरकार को सेना और सुरक्षाबलों की सेवाआें को और आकर्षक बनाने की दिशा में पहल करनी चाहिए। साथ ही कर्तव्य निर्वहन के दौरान शहीद होने वाले परिवारों को दी जाने वाली सुविधाएं यथाशीघ्र मुहैया करानी चाहिए। केन्द्र को ऐसा कानूनी प्रावधान करना चाहिए ताकि राज्य सरकारें उसके अनुपालन के लिए बाध्य हो। तभी पी़डत परिवारों के टूटते विश्वास पर विराम लग सकेगा। सरकार को इस दिशा में सोचने की जरूरत है। आतंकी वारदातों से लहूलुहान भारत पर इसीलिए नरम राष्ट्र होने के आरोप लग रहे हैं। आतंकियों के हाथों बारबार चोट खाने के बावजूद उनके सफाये के प्रति हम गंभीर नहीं दिखते। सरकार पर आरोप लग रहे हैं कि आतंक के खिलाफ ल़डाई में उसे वोट बैंक दिख रहा है। इसीलिए जेलों में बंद आतंकवादियों के खिलाफ क़डी कार्रवाई करने में वह हीलाहवाली कर रही है, जिसका खामियाजा अन्ततः निर्दाेेष जनता और देश को भुगतना प़ड रहा है। 

Swatantra Vaartha  Tue, 22 Feb 2011, IST





बाबा रामदेव से आतंकित लोग
अरुणाचल प्रदेश की यात्रा पर गये योग गुरु बाबा रामदेव को इंडिया के भीतर ही पहली बार इंडियन होने की गाली मिली। क्या मतलब है इसका। बाबा रामदेव को ‘ब्लडी इंडियन डॉग’ कहने वाला कांग्रेसी सांसद निनांग एरिंग क्या स्वयं इंडियन नहीं है ? शायद नहीं ! निनांग एरिंग धर्मांतरित ईसाई है। वह ‘पोलिटिकली’ इंडियन जरूर है, ‘कल्चरली’ नहीं। भगवा वस्त्र धारण करने व योग की शिक्षा देने वाले रामदेव ‘कल्चरली’ इंडियन है, जो ‘पोलिटिकल’ इंडिया में दखल देना चाहते हैं। एरिंग के लिए ‘इंडिया’ एक जागीर से अधिक कुछ नहीं है। उन्हें इसके इतिहास व संस्कृति से कोई लेनादेना नहीं है। वह ‘जेन्टिलमैन’ इंडियन हैं और भगवाधारी बाबा ‘ब्लडी’ इंडियन। किसी ‘ब्लडी’ इंडियन को क्या हक है कि वह ‘जेन्टिलमैन’ इंडियन की पार्टी के नेताआे पर कोई आक्षेप करे, भ्रष्टाचार के आरोप लगाये और उसकी सत्ता को बदलने का आह्‌वान करे।
यद्यपि एरिंग बाद में ढीले प़ड गये। उन्हें डर लगा कि ‘ब्लडी इंडियन’ कहने पर कहीं उनकी पार्टी न उनसे नाराज हो जाए। उन्हें उस भगवाधारी की तो कोई चिंता नहीं हुई, लेकिन अपने पार्टी नेताआें के गुस्से की चिंता हो गयी। ‘ब्लडी’ इंडियन की बात उन्हें भी ‘हर्ट’ कर सकती है। इसलिए उन्होंने नरमी अख्तियार करना ही ठीक समझा, लेकिन बाबा पर हमला करने की जिम्मेदारी अब पार्टी के महासचिव दिग्विजय सिंह ने ले ली है। उन्होंने बाबा जी से पूछा है कि पहले वह अपनी आमदनी का ब्यौरा देश को दें। वैसे दिग्विजय सिंह को यह पूछने या कहने की जरूरत नहीं है, उन्हें यदि बाबा जी की नाजायज संपत्ति या नाजायज आमदनी का कोई संदेह है, तो उनकी सरकार के पास ऐसी तमाम कानूनी मशीनरी है, जो सीधे उनसे पूछताछ कर सकती है, उनके एकाउंट देख सकती है। देश के भीतर तो किसी का एकाउंट गोपनीय है नहीं और बाबा विदेश में अपना पैसा रख नहीं सकते, क्योंकि वह स्वयं विदेश में जमा भारतीयों के पैसे के खिलाफ अभियान छ़ेडे हुए हैं।
लेकिन बाबा जी को तथा उनके अनुयायियों को खुद भी कुछ सावधानियां बरतनी चाहिए। वह यदि आधुनिक लोकतांत्रिक राजनीतिक व सामाजिक व्यवस्था में दखल देने की अपनी योजना को सफल बनाना चाहते हैं, तो उन्हें भी इसे एक वैज्ञानिक आधार प्रदान करना होगा। यदि इसमें उन्होंने पूजापाठ और यज्ञादि के कर्मकांड को शामिल किया, तो उनकी राजनीति भी उसी में स्वाहा हो जाएगी। बाबा जी कहते हैं योगाभ्यास से चित्त शांत होता है, क्रोधादि पर नियंत्रण कायम होता है, किंतु एरिंग की एक मामूली सी टिप्पणी से उनका वषा] का अभ्यास वाला चित्त भी क्षुब्ध हो गया और ब़डी मुश्किल से उन्हें अपने क्रोध पर नियंत्रण करना प़डा। उनके शिष्यगण अभी भी क्रुद्ध हैं। उनके कुछ अनुयायी एरिंग की बुद्धिशुद्धि के लिए यज्ञहवन कर रहे हैं। इस यज्ञ हवन से आधुनिक लोकतंत्र चलने वाला नहीं है। यदि लोगों की बुद्धि शुद्धि इतनी आसान है, तो बाबा रामदेव को दिल्ली में एक ब़डा यज्ञ करके सभी ब़डे नेताआें की एक साथ बुद्धि शुद्धि कर देनी चाहिए। फिर तो उन्हें आगे का कोई संघर्ष ही नहीं करना प़डेगा। इसलिए बाबा जी को चाहिए कि वह पहले अपने शिष्यों व अनुयायियों को वैज्ञानिक सोच वाला, उदार व सहिष्णु बनाएं।
वे उत्तेजित होकर अपना सहज संतुलन खोते रहे, तो वे अपनी यात्रा में बहुत आगे तक नहीं जा सकेंगे। बाबा रामदेव के अभियान से भ्रष्ट राजनेताआें में एक तरह का आतंक अवश्य पैदा हुआ है। भविष्य में ऐसे लोगों से उनका टकराव होना स्वाभाविक है। उस टकराव में स्वयं उनका व उनके अनुयायियों का संयम और धैर्य ही सर्वाधिक काम आएगा।

Swatantra Vaartha
The Pioneer
The New Indian Express

21 February, 2011

AP Samachar - 21 February 2011


'Distress' and 'regret'


S Gurumurthy
First Published : 20 Feb 2011 10:36:00 PM IST
Last Updated : 21 Feb 2011 12:56:04 AM IST
 
That leaks make news is well known. More sensitive the leaks more shocking the news. The alleged ‘apology’ of L K Advani to Sonia Gandhi to the Bharatiya Janata Party task force on black money abroad saying that she held secret Swiss bank accounts was indeed a stunner. The leak shocked the BJP to grief, surprised the Congress to joy, and bewildered the media to splits. A plain reading of Advani’s letter shows that he has not regretted for the task force report mentioning Sonia’s name at all. Yet, thanks to the media spin, the whole country believes he has. Here is the story of the ‘regret’. The task force of the BJP consisting of four specialists — Ajit Doval, a  security expert, Prof Vaidyanathan, a  financial expert, Mahesh Jethmalani, a  senior lawyer and myself, an experienced chartered accountant — had submitted a meticulous report, running to almost 100 pages, on the black money stashed away abroad. Citing two unbiased sources, the task force report had said that Sonia Gandhi family reportedly held huge funds in Swiss banks. This should have made big national news; but it did not. Why?The Delhi media in strength had attended the release of the task force report by the tall leaders of the BJP and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on February 1; but it hardly reported either the news or the contents of the report. That the task force had mentioned the name of Sonia Gandhi was presumed to be the reason for the self-censorship of the Delhi media. But, ironically, what the release of the task force report could not achieve, the leak of the ‘apology’ letter seems to be achieving. The clever leak of Advani’s letter, intended to abort any discussion on Sonia Gandhi family’s alleged Swiss bank accounts, has inevitably drawn her into it. Because, as the Delhi media discusses what the ‘apology’ is for, it is forced to refer to the Swiss account of Sonia Gandhi family mentioned in the task force report. The report cited two independent, credible sources for the alleged secret Swiss accounts and other secret funds of the Sonia Gandhi family. The first was an exposure in the most popular news magazine of Switzerland, Schweizer Illustrierte (November 11, 1991). The Swiss magazine had alleged that some 14 leaders of third world countries had stashed away their bribes in Swiss banks; the late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi with $2.2 billions in secret accounts was one of them. The next was a research book, based on the declassified KGB documents, written by Yuvegina Albats, a Russian journalist. The KGB documents cited by Albats said that, in the year 1985, when Rajiv Gandhi was the prime minister, he had expressed gratefulness to the KGB for financial favours shown to the Gandhi family. The task force report had also pointed out that A G Noorani, well-known columnist, first wrote about these exposes in The Statesman newspaper in 1988; later, Subramanian Swamy put out the photocopies of the Swiss magazine and the extracts of Albats’ book in the Janata Party website from 2001; subsequently, well-known columnist Rajinder Puri wrote about Albats’ expose in his column in 2005; afterwards, I wrote about it in detail in the year 2009 and again in January this year in The New Indian Express; finally, Ram Jethmalani wrote on it in India Today. The task force pointed out that the Gandhi family did not contest nor dare sue any of the writers or publishers in or outside India. It had also contrasted their silence with how Morarji Desai, when he was 87, filed a $50 million damages suit in US when Seymour Hersh wrote in his book that Desai was a CIA agent, disproved the charge and saved his and the nation’s honour. The task force asked why the Gandhi family did not emulate Desai to establish the honour of Rajiv Gandhi and the nation. The task force had also pointed out that to make the matters worse, when an advertisement containing the alleged Swiss accounts in Sonia family name was issued in The New York Times issued by some NRIs at the time of Sonia Gandhi’s visit to US in 2008, the Indian National Overseas Congress sued for $100 millions in damages to defend the honour of Sonia Gandhi but did not contest the allegation about Swiss money; and it also withdrew the suit!After the task force report was released, on February 15, Sonia Gandhi wrote a secret, not open, letter to Advani expressing her disappointment at a person of his stature releasing the task force report of the BJP endorsing what she called as “scurrilous allegations” against her family, which she had treated with “contempt”. Are the exposes Schweizer Illustrierte and Albats scurrilous? On February 16, expressing happiness at her denial of the allegations, Advani said that had she denied it earlier the task force would have factored it in its report. He concluded, “Even so, I deeply regret the distress caused to you”, which made the Congress to gloat over. Explicitly, it is no regret for the report mentioning her family’s alleged Swiss accounts. A dignified regret for the personal distress has been turned into a political apology. The task force has asserted that it is the author of the report. The BJP or NDA could accept or reject its report. But, they considered the report, accepted and released it. The task force members have reiterated that they stand by every word of their report including about the alleged secret funds of the Sonia Gandhi family based on the sources cited. The task force is an independent body of domain specialists. It has castigated all political parties and all political leaders as lacking in credibility, thus not sparing the BJP, which had sought its views. The leak has only helped to confirm the independence of the task force. And more, it has also helped to lift the self-censorship of the Delhi media and open the alleged Sonia Gandhi family Swiss accounts for public debate comment@gurumurthy.netS Gurumurthy is a well-known commentator on political and economic issues

19 February, 2011

AP Samachar - 19 February 2011

Mr PM, this isn't you 
February 19, 2011   8:39:30 PM

Ashok Malik

Manmohan Singh blames everybody except himself and the Congress for everything that has gone wrong — from inflation to mega corruption.

Political scientists often talk of the ‘expectations revolution’, the urge in societies for public goods and responsive administration. In politics — as opposed to perhaps policy — there is another sort of expectations phenomenon. Public figures and elected leaders who raise hopes in one or the other area find themselves disproportionately criticised when they fall short of expectations. That hard message is a key takeaway from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s interaction with television editors earlier this week.

Mr Singh’s question and answer session was telecast live and watched keenly by relevant audiences. To a degree, he was being heard by his constituency: The urban middle classes, the policy elite and the intelligentsia. Irrespective of party preferences, this is a broad section that has a significant quantum of affection and respect for Mr Singh. It has seen him as a good man in politics, honest and straightforward, not an intriguer. Making one of his rare media appearances, he drew attention if for nothing else for the fact that he was the picture of sobriety. He did not raise his voice, spoke softly and, really, was a model for the sort of television debates that educated India would want to see if haranguing anchors and screaming politicians would permit.
Yet, in the end even Mr Singh’s partisans did feel a little disappointed, if not downright let down. The notion of trust that governed the relationship between the Prime Minister and middle India has been severely damaged in the past year. The media interaction did not reverse that process; it may actually have accentuated it.

In fundamental ways Mr Singh has changed. This was a man who gave his Government “six on 10” in a report card in 2005, one year after he became Prime Minister. Then, he was considered modest. He had public sympathy because he was running a very difficult alliance with regional parties and being blackmailed by the Left Front. This week, he insisted he (and presumably his Government) got things right “seven times out of 10”. Whatever else that grade may be, it is not India’s sense of how the UPA regime is doing. Though not quite hubris, the humility of 2005 has given way to an assessment that is, well, less-than-honest.

Mr Singh admitted mistakes had been made, but did so grudgingly. On specific questions — the delay in the Commonwealth Games investigation and the loss of revenue in the 2G Spectrum scandal — he was evasive. Everything seemed somebody else’s fault. The spectrum scandal was blamed on the then Telecom Minister (A Raja) and the then Finance Minister (Mr P Chidambaram). Agriculture/food inflation was blamed on marketing reforms not being undertaken by State Governments. Imperfect Cabinet formation was blamed on coalition compulsions.

There seems to be a trend here. The telecom scandal and corruption generally have been blamed on coalition politics and the DMK. A few weeks ago, Mr Rahul Gandhi blamed food inflation on coalition politics and presumably the NCP (which runs the Agriculture Ministry). Some in the Congress have chosen to blame delay in new land acquisition legislation on coalition politics and specifically the Trinamool Congress. Is the Congress responsible for anything at all?

Such excuses would have been explicable and valid in the first term of the UPA. The Congress had only 145 seats and was precariously placed. It needed to make a lot of compromises. In 2009, the Congress won 206 seats in the Lok Sabha election, just 66 seats short of an absolute majority. If you add the Trinamool Congress’s 19 seats, this creates a cushion of 225 seats. After all, Ms Mamata Banerjee’s party has no outrageous demands and no political or economic interests outside West Bengal. No ruling party has been so secure in any election since 1991. How then can Mr Singh point fingers everywhere other than in his (and his party’s) direction?

For all his protestations, the Prime Minister did not play with a straight bat. For instance, he said the goods and services tax regime has been in suspended animation because the BJP refuses to back it. The BJP is not supporting it, he suggested, because the Congress-led Government is going after Amit Shah, former Home Minister of Gujarat, in a criminal case that seeks to paint him as the mastermind of an extortion racket that used gangsters (such as Sohrabuddin Sheikh) and chosen police officers to threaten and coerce businessmen.

Many — and not all of them members of the BJP — feel the Central Bureau of Investigation’s case against Amit Shah is largely concocted and politically motivated. Nevertheless, a legal process is on. If the BJP made a blunt demand, and asked the Union Government to withdraw charges against Amit Shah in return for its support on GST, then it is a serious matter. Was such a transaction proposed and, one would imagine, rejected by the Prime Minister and the Congress? If so, when did this conversation take place, who were the participants? How different is Mr Singh’s vague allusion from the shoot-and-scoot tactics that a Congress spokesperson accused Opposition parties of only the other day?

The GST regime will do much to break inter-State trade barriers, rid India of artificial economic silos and make it a genuine national market. It is needed for a modern economy. However, the opposition to it is not coming from only the BJP, or only for political reasons. Different States are looking at the GST idea from their individual perspective, and not necessarily that of party affiliation. Even within the BJP there is a divide. States that have consumption-based economies will be immediate gainers should GST be introduced. States that have production or input-based economies will not and are bargaining for more and more compensation. Provisions in the draft GST law have also been opposed by Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and Odisha, none of them ruled by the BJP. Amit Shah is irrelevant to all this.

Finally, though he may not have intended it that way, the Prime Minister’s juxtaposition of the under-pricing of spectrum with the subsidy on food rations for people living below the poverty line was extremely unfortunate. The principles that underpin the Right to Food cannot be extended to the Right to Spectrum. Meant as an abstract example of perceptions of correct pricing of resources, that comparison ended up sounding callous and insensitive. It spoke for what is the Manmohan Singh Government’s number one failing today: Disconnect from India.

-- malikashok@gmail.com 

The Pioneer
The Hindu
The New Indian Express
Times of India

18 February, 2011

AP Samachar - 18 February 2011

Arindam Chaudhuri
February 18, 2011   8:54:27 PM

It is absurd that despite overwhelming evidence of his involvement in the 26/11 carnage, Ajmal Kasab continues to enjoy the hospitality of the Government of India which has spent crores of rupees on his safety and security till now. Such an attitude can only embolden terrorist organisations with designs on India

What more does the Government of India need to punish Ajmal Kasab who was caught red-handed causing mayhem in Mumbai on November 26, 2008? More so at a time when Governments across the world have adopted a ‘zero tolerance’ policy towards terrorism.

Look at what the Sri Lankan Government did to the LTTE which had earned the reputation of being the most dangerous terrorist organisation in the world: It was uprooted in a matter of months. Here, first we allow Kasab and nine others to reach the shores of our country; we also allow them to mercilessly take innocent lives and destroy valuable property; we manage to kill nine of them, finally catch one of them, and then keep him under guard for 646 days without any punishment for reasons that fail any sane mind. For the record, Kasab’s trial ‘officially’ began on the April 15, 2009 and the High Court’s verdict is tentatively slated to be announced on February 21, 2011— a total of 646 days.

What is most insane is that unlike many countries, where in similar cases no one bothers about witnesses or evidences and verdicts are passed with no consideration whatsoever, in our case not only do we have enough evidence, including closed circuit TV footage that caught Kasab in action and footage of the Mumbai attack telecast live by all news channels, but Kasab himself has accepted all the charges brought against him. Yet the Government chose to make him stand trial instead of hanging him straight away.

Like every Indian, I ask: For what has he been kept alive? Is it to make his defence lawyer the most sought-after criminal lawyer of India? Or is it to create a poster boy image out of Kasab? If this is the intention of the Government, then one must admit that it has been fairly successful. Otherwise, where else does a terrorist who was part of a full-fledged terror attack against India in which at least 166 people were killed not only go unpunished for so many days but is also served mutton biryani, is given access to newspapers and is provided with his choice of clothing?

All this is provided to Kasab by the same Government, which serves other prisoners sub-standard food, two sets of black-and-white striped uniforms and dumps them in the middle of the most inhumane conditions, that too often on account of petty crimes.

Honestly, keeping Kasab alive speaks volumes about the indecisive and spineless attitude of our Government. And it is not that our Government has proven this just to its own citizens. The message has, more dangerously, been conveyed to various terrorist outfits which, by now, know very well that the Government of India does not have a spine. What is worse is that by keeping Kasab alive, the Government has potentially increased the probability of another 26/11, or another IC-814 horror.

It was owing to the let-go attitude of the Government that the Indian Airlines flight en route to Indira Gandhi International Airport from Tribhuvan International Airport on December 24, 1999, was hijacked to Kandahar with 178 people on board. That hijacking led to the release of terrorists like Maulana Masood Azhar (who played an active role in the 2001 attack on Parliament House and later was part of the 26/11 plot), Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh (who went on to murder Daniel Pearl) and Mushtaq Ahmed Zargar (who has been recruiting and training terrorists in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir) to secure the freedom of the hostages.

Contrast this to what happened during the Moscow theatre hostage crisis, also known as the 2002 Nord-Ost siege. And the way the Russian Government’s unbending attitude towards terrorist demands set an example in front of its people. Moscow had responded in a similar manner to the 2004 Beslan school hostage crisis.

It is needless to state that when it comes to national security, nothing else can be a priority for any Government. But in the Kasab episode, it is intriguing to analyse the economics of keeping him alive for so long.

It is estimated that the Maharashtra Government has spent a whopping Rs 31 crore in the first year of Kasab’s arrest. From creating a bullet-proof cell in the JJ Hospital premises (which was never used) to visits by 24 doctors to attend to his various ailments in just one year, the Maharashtra Government has done it all. As if this were not enough, this celebrity-terrorist was provided with an imported van costing Rs 6 crore — which was stolen as soon as it reached India.

Above all, Mumbaikars, who faced the brunt of the 26/11 carnage, have had to bear the delay in the laying of new water pipes near Arthur Road Jail which has cost the BMC another Rs 12 crore while the re-routing of the monorail has dented the Government’s coffers by another Rs 44 crore — all this on account of ‘security reasons’. A back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates that the Government has spent around Rs 100 crore in just one year on Kasab who, along with his fellow terrorists, destroyed public property worth Rs 41.72 crore. In short, Kasab has made our Government spend more than what he destroyed.

This entire saga has proven again that our Government is at best good at condemning assailants, felicitating martyrs, compensating victims, addressing the nation with a false hope and — if by chance a terrorist is arrested — holding terrorists alive till another negotiation takes place.

A swift verdict to hang Kasab is the least we can do for those who lost their lives during the attack which began on 26/11. On February 21 the verdict must be “Hang Kasab till death”. And it must be implemented fast without wasting time.

The writer is a management guru and Editor, The Sunday Indian.
 


The Pioneer
Deccan Chronicle
The Hindu

17 February, 2011

AP Samachar - 17 February 2011

The New Indian Express

Q: Aroon Purie (Aaj Tak): On the 2G scam: You had warned Raja in November 2007 to considering auction of the 2G spectrum on 2007 rates and he actually disregarded your advice. And later on in 2008 the companies which got the spectrum sold it for large sums of money, the values which are in the public domain. Inspite of all this you appointed him again as the telecom minister. What was your thinking behind this?PM: Let me first deal with what I said to Raja in a letter that I wrote to him on November 2, 2007. I mentioned in that letter number of concerns which were being expressed, some in the press, some telecom companies used to come and mention to me. I listed a number of issues and I said to him that you must look into these issues and ensure that they are dealt with in a fair, equitable and transparent manner. One of the issues that I asked him to look into was the possibility from legal and technical angle of having an auction of spectrum. Raja wrote back to me almost on the same day, or our letters crossed. He said, I have been absolutely transparent in my dealings, I will be so in the future, and you have my assurance that I have done nothing and will do nothing which will not be consistent with the promise that I am making. Now as far as auction is concerned, he came back to me and said auction is something which has not been suggested by TRAI, also not suggested by the Telecom Commission and he also said that if we have an auction, it would not give a level playing field for the new comers, because the existing players have got their spectrum free of charge of about 10 megahertz. Therefore he said the TRAI’s advice, Telecom Commission’s advice and his own view was that auctions are not the way forward at least for 2G spectrum and he also mentioned in a subsequent letter that he is agreeable to auction of 3G spectrum. But with regard to 2G spectrum, he was very clear that he should stay with the then existing approach. And this was also discussed with the Finance Ministry because in terms of the Cabinet decision of 2003 the pricing and allocation of spectrum was to be settled between the Ministry of Finance and the Telecom Dept. Initially, of course, the Finance Ministry did ask for a high price of spectrum but after many discussions, the two ministries agreed that as far as 2G is concerned, we have to live with the present system particularly with regard to the amount of spectrum that is built and embedded into a licence agreement. So this is the background why I did not proceed further with this matter of pricing of spectrum, because if the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Telecom both agree and they have the obligation of the Cabinet Decision of 2003 to decide on the matter and also since TRAI is an expert body and Telecom Commission has experts, if all of them are of the same view, I did not feel I was in a position to insist that auctions must be insisted.(Supplementary): Sale of spectrum to companies even before roll out, a scam was staring everybody in the face …?PM: I do not know, frankly speaking what was the motivation of people who got spectrum but I know that as far as the basic policy is concerned, that I thought was as it was then the prevailing practice and Raja was continuing that policy, that as far as who gets licences, the first come first served policy, how it was implemented, that was never discussed with me. Licences was not matter which got referred to me or to the Cabinet, that was the decision exclusively of the telecom minister. Now subsequent events have shown that companies sold their equity but I was told that they had not sold it to shareholders. They have sold it in a manner to dilute the equity of the promoters. Now if they have to roll out they require money, and that money can be raised either by way of borrowings, or by way of diluting equity by getting in more people. Therefore at that stage I did not think that I should intervene in that affair. The other thing that you have mentioned about Raja being inducted into the Cabinet, I cannot divulge what went on in the processes of Cabinet formation but I would like to mention that we are a coalition government. In a coalition government, you can suggest your preferences but you have to go by what the leader of that particular coalition party ultimately insists. And Raja along with Maran was the choice of the DMK party. And as of that moment, I had no reason, frankly speaking, to feel that anything seriously wrong had been done. And therefore I did not feel that I had the authority to object to Raja’s entry because I quite honestly in May 2009, although complaints were coming from all sides, and some were from those companies which had not benefitted, some were from those which had benefitted but not benefitted adequately and therefore I was not in a position to make up my mind that anything seriously was wrong with Raja’s doings at that time.Prashant Raghuvamsam (Asianet): One of the hot subjects is corruption in judiciary, there are allegations even against a former Chief Justice. Justice Krishna Iyer says that you are silent on this matter. How will you react to this?PM: With regard to corruption in judiciary, corruption in any walk of life, whether it is in judiciary, executive, legislature, should be a matter of concern to all thinking people in our country and therefore I am second to none, in saying that if there is corruption, whether it is in judiciary, or in executive or in other walks of life, we must get rid of that.Pranjal Sharma (Bloomberg-UTV): No positive, constructive economic agenda– Whatever steps are being taken are being stalled at the Parliament level, stalled by the states or by the opposition parties or even in some cases by industry. No big reformist wave coming from UPA2. Have we lost the will to take hard reformist decisions?PM: No way, We have not lost the will. We will persist. There are difficulties when Parliament is not allowed to function. When the opposition led states for example do not wish to cooperate over path breaking reforms ushering in single goods and services tax. This is the reform which is needed. This would make our tax system if the reform comes about, an envy of the world. But the opposition parties, particularly, the BJP has taken a hostile attitude and the reasons that have been given, frankly I cannot mention it in public, they say because you have taken some decision against a particular person, who was a minister in Gujarat, we must reverse it, I don’t want to add furtherRajdeep Sardesai (CNN-IBN): You have said that you would like the Parliament to resume functioning in an orderly manner. Are you therefore, on your own part ready to agree to the opposition’s demand for Joint Parliament Committee into the 2G scam, because there is feeling that there was a reluctance both on your part and the part of the Government because you did not want to appear in front of a JPC in the context of the 2G scam?PM: While you have raised about my opposition to the JPC of being afraid to appear before it. I am not afraid of appearing before any committee. The PAC is a joint parliamentary committee presided over by a very senior member of the opposition. I have publicly declared that I am willing to appear before the PAC. So I am not afraid of appearing before any committee including a JPC. And this is entirely a wrong impression that I was the one who was blocking the agreement about the JPC because I did not want to appear before the JPC. I have always said that as Prime Minister my conduct must be like Caesar’s wife above suspicion and I am quite prepared to appear before any committee that may go into this.(Supplementary): And would you concede that there are a lot of corrupt people in your government and you are not able to act against and that led you to believe that enough is enough?PM: I think in a coalition government there is a coalition dharma and obviously the things are not entirely the way I would like them to be but quite frankly I have never felt like resigning because I have a job to do. The country voted our party to be the leader of the UPA coalition and we have a lot of unfinished business to accomplish and therefore I have never thought in terms of giving up half way and I will stay the course. Subhashish Moitra (Kolkata TV): Sir for the last few months, UPA has been facing two major issues i.e. price rise and corruption. Can it affect the alliance and can it break the UPA alliance from within and is there any chance of having relations with the Left?PM: I think, the Left is no longer a part of our coalition so I don’t know how to answer your question. As far as coalition partners presently are concerned I think, ours is a strong coalition. Our allies are as committed to strengthening the hands of coalition government as anybody else. So there is no danger that there might be inner tensions which might lead to break-up of this coalition. We are a strong government, we are a strong coalition and our coalition partners are with us….Pronnoy Roy (NDTV): You are talking about unfair criticism of lame duck and the sense of drift that you the most honest prime minister are surrounded by a very dishonest administration. How will you change this drift. Are you going to have a major reshuffle?PM: Well, I have said that after the budget session of Parliament is over, there will be a restructuring — a reshuffle of the Cabinet. I hope and I think I will get back to the task once the budget session of Parliament is over.Ramakrishnan (SunTV): On fishermen issue with Sri Lankan Government. PM: I have been told that about 118 fishermen have been taken into custody. We are taking up this matter with the Sri Lankan Government. We take a very serious view. I think only earlier in this month, the Foreign Secretary to make a strong demarche …..This kind of behaviour is not acceptable among neighbouring countries.(Supplementary): Tamil Nadu is going for assembly elections. What is your assessment on TN elections. PM: I am not an astrologer but I do hope that the ruling coalition will win.Sanjay Majumdar (BBC-British Aid): Why do we still need international aid? PM: India still is a poor country. And it is certainly true if aid is not forthcoming we will not collapse but I think we have the capacity to make good use of development assistance and if some friendly country offers large amount of money by way of concessional development support, I don’t see why we should decline to accept.(Supplementary): Image of India taken a beating after the scams. PM: Let me say that this sort of atmosphere is not good. It saps our own self-confidence, it also spoils the image of India and therefore I urge each one of you that in reporting these events, while opinions are a matter of speculation, facts are sacred. And facts should not be distorted. Opinions, you can freely express views, which are one’s held convictions, but we owe it to our country that when it comes to reporting country’s affairs, at least when it comes to dealing with the facts, they should be as objective as is possible.Satish K Singh (Zee News): Aapne yeh press conference kyon bulayi? Brashtachar ke mudde pe aap bahut serious hai. Lok Pal, Black money, State funding of elections. Malam in budget. Will you accept any of your mistakes. PM: A Group of Ministers is looking into all aspects of how to deal with corruption. Also it is not certainly true that we have not dealt with black money problem, the effort is on to sign treaties or to revise treaties which would enable us to get information from the affected countries where this money is stored. We will take all possible measures to control this menace of black money, to bring back to our country the money which is legally ours.Rajdeep Sardesai (CNN IBN): Home Minister spoke of the governance deficit, your telecom minister spoke of zero revenue loss on 2G, these are two statements. Where do you stand in the 2G scam, where do you stand on the Home Minister’s governance deficit statement.PM: Obviously if the events have taken place, they do bring out the weaknesses in the governance, or you may call them ethical deficit, I don’t deny that we need to improve the quality of governance that’s not a subject which divides me and other members of the Cabinet. With regard to the loss of revenues, it is very much dependent on what is your starting point. There are various estimates, but you have to assess what is the right magnitude after asking yourself what was the right price. Now, I have explained to you that the then existing policy of the Government was that auctions should not take place. And if auctions are not taking place then what is the basis for you to calculate a loss. I am not in a position to say that there is a foolproof method in which one can determine the extent of the loss. It is very much a function of what is your starting point. And also depends upon our opinion we have a budget which gives subsidy for food, 80,000 crores per annum, some people may say these foodgrains should be sold at market place. Will we say then because they are not sold at market prices, because you are giving them a subsidy, it is a loss of 80,000 crores. We give subsidy to fertilisers which cost about 60,000 crores every year people can say that these fertilisers should be priced at the market rate, would you then say that there is a loss of revenue of 60,000 crores in fertilisers sale. We subsidise the price of kerosene to an extent which is greater than many other subsidies, that imposes burden on our oil marketing companies, should we say then that because we give subsidy for kerosene sales under public distribution, that there is loss of revenue.(Supplementary): Are you disagreeing with what CAG said, or are you agreeing with what your Telecom minister has said. PM: I think the CAG himself has said that it is presumptive loss. And therefore, it depends upon which assumptions you make. I would not like to intervene.Arnab Goswami (Times Now): In October you said 90 days for CWG probe, it is now more than 90 days. Do you feel disappointed with the progress of the CWG probe.PM: We are trying our very best but we had to go through the due process of law. We are a country where the rule of law prevails, sometimes, it is very frustrating that it takes time. But you have my assurance that wrong doers will not escape this time.Pronnoy Roy: It is very difficult to calculate the loss. There is subsidy in the allocation of 2G licences. Do you think it should have been an auction.PM: I think you have to take a decision at that particular time. Of all the decisions that I take, it is 7 out of 10 turn out to be correct. The shareholders of a normal corporation will say a job well done. We are living in a world of uncertainty. Many things ex-ante you think do not turn out to be ex-post. Therefore there is a gap between ex-ante thinking and what has emerged as a reality subsequently.Rajdeep Sardesai: Biggest regret and biggest achievement in UPA 2 PM: It is a big regret that these irregularities have happened, these should not have happened. That is certain I am not very happy about these developments. Achievements, the very fact that despite very unfavourable international economic environment, we have managed to ensure that our economy’s growth rhythm is not grossly affected.


Could revolution spread from Egypt to Pakistan? 
Declan Walsh
The country is ripe for revolt, though it would mean ousting the army.














PHOTO: AFP

AGAINST REFORM:A recent photograph, outside the Karachi International airport, of police leading a baton charge on employees of Pakistan International Airlines who were challenging planned reforms.
As Hosni Mubarak reluctantly retired last Friday (on February 11), another revolt was reaching its climax in Pakistan. For four days the workers of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), the national carrier, had been on strike. Some 25,000 passengers were stranded, including me.
I was stuck in Quetta, a tense, paranoid city near the Afghan border where the security forces are engaged in a ruthless cat-and-mouse game with nationalist rebels; it is also a supposed refuge for the one-eyed Taliban leader Mullah Omar. As the skies emptied of planes, guests from my hotel fled Quetta by car, crossing the sprawling deserts, or chancing the rickety 22-hour train ride to Karachi. I stayed put.
On TV the picture flipped from ecstatic crowds surging through Tahrir Square in Cairo, to Pakistani riot police baton-charging PIA workers at Karachi airport. The strike was over planned reforms. PIA is a bloated, sick elephant. It has 400 employees per aircraft — about three times the norm — and last year it asked the government to pay $1.7bn (£1.06bn) in debt. But the unions objected to plans to rationalise the workforce, and demanded that managing director Aijaz Haroon resign. And so on Friday night, under immense pressure, he went, resigning at the same time as Mubarak fell in Egypt.
A country on edge
As the screen filled with ecstatic revolutionaries surging through Tahrir Square, a note of envy sounded among Pakistanis on Twitter. Could the glorious revolution spread to their country? “I wish, wish, wish Pakistan could be next,” wrote the author Fatima Bhutto.
Pakistan certainly seems ripe for revolt. It is perpetually on a knife edge — extremists plot and explode bombs, senior politicians are assassinated, society seethes with discontent. A slim upper crust floats in a bubble of wealth and privilege — the local version of Hello! offers coverage of upper-class toddler parties — while the poor grind along under soaring food inflation and 12-hour power cuts. Regional tensions threaten to pull the country asunder. In Quetta, residents were shivering in their homes because the rebels had blown up the gas pipelines four times over the previous week.
“We're in a bad way,” one mournful lawyer told me before I left, glancing over his shoulder to see if intelligence officials were evesdropping.
Some analysts compare the mood to Iran in 1979, when a restive middle-class upended the American-backed Shah and opened the door to theocratic Islamic rule. Yet on the ground in Pakistan, the whiff of revolution is faint. For a start, the country is too fractured. Take Karachi, a sprawling megalopolis of 16 million people, about the size of Cairo. Control of the city is divided between a patchwork of political, sectarian and criminal gangs. All are heavily armed. Protests against Pervez Musharraf in the city four years ago pitted rival groups against each other, triggering a bloodbath.
On President Zardari
The bigger problem, perhaps, is that there is no dictator to overthrow. Pakistanis already have democracy, elections and a vigorous press. But among the educated classes, few want to engage with the political system, considering it dirty and corrupt. And so they focus their frustration on their President, Asif Ali Zardari, a fantastically unpopular figure. Locked into his fortified Islamabad palace, Zardari is portrayed by a hostile media as aloof and corrupt, a schemer and a shyster. Many people are prepared to believe the most lurid stories about him, including that he plotted the assassination of his wife, Benazir Bhutto, in 2007. Zardari-hating has become a virtual fetish among the chattering classes.
Some of this is warranted — his government disastrously bungled the recent blasphemy furore, and is struggling to deal with the case of Raymond Davis, an American official who shot two people dead on a Lahore street. Corruption is certainly rife, although many of the wilder stories are almost certainly exaggerated. But the hard truth is that power in Pakistan resides inside the gleaming halls of the army headquarters, where liveried generals hold the keys to the country's nuclear weapons — more than 100, according to one recent count — and control policy with India, Afghanistan and America.
And so a true revolution in Pakistan would see the army being ousted from power — except that would be tricky, because it isn't officially in charge.
The real danger, however, may lie in the dark clouds gathering over the economy. Companies such as PIA are sucking the Treasury dry; last week's strike demonstrated scant political will to get them into shape. On the revenue side, the rich refuse to pay tax — the tax-to-GDP ratio is a disastrously low nine per cent and many politicians pay just a few hundred pounds tax per year. To plug this hole, the government has resorted to printing money at an alarming pace. Few doubt it is unsustainable. Over tea in his office, a senior western diplomat told me the economy was his “number one priority”.
Economists say the bubble could burst in a matter of months — rocketing inflation, a crashing currency, capital flight. If that happens, trouble could stir on the streets, notwithstanding Pakistanis' amazing tolerance for adversity. But it's unlikely to have the same clean lines as the Egyptian revolt. And its consequences could be just as unpredictable.— © Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2011

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