Muhammad Daheem
This is election year in India. India's main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to be ahead of all other parties. This party seems to be the winner in the upcoming national elections. The prediction is based on the surveys made by India Today, Reuters, Bloomberg and Hindustan Times.
The surveys show that BJP can win up to 188 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha (lower house). The ruling Indian National Congress Party is still in a position to win about 91 seats. Not even a single party would be in a position to make government without making a major alliance. The winning party will need 272 seats out of 543 to make the Central government.
The National Democratic Alliance, including BJP, is in a position win 212 seats. The United Progressive Alliance, including Congress Party, can win up to 103 seats. Several regional parties may win 228 seats in the upcoming elections. It is predicted that Aam Aadmi Party that raised a whirlwind in the Indian politics may win 10 seats in the upcoming elections. According to Reuters's survey BJP will win 41 to 49 of the 80 seats in India's most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, 16 to 24 of the 40 seats in Bihar, and more than half of the 48 seats in Maharashtra, along with a long-term ally.
Another survey made by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and the CNN-IBN tells somewhat a different story. It says that BJP would win 152 seats from 13 states. It is presumed Congress would get between 55 and 113 of those seats.
The upcoming general election will be held to elect members of parliament in the 543-member Lok Sabha. It will be the 16th Lok Sabha. The 15th Lok Sabha will complete its tenure on 31 May 2014. It is pertinent to mention here that Lok Sabha election is held at most every five-year. It is organized by the Election Commission of India. The Election is held in several phases. Indian nationals, 25 years and above, are eligible to contest the Lok Sabha and the Vidhan Saba elections.
BJP has already succeeded in three legislative assembly elections held on 8 December 2013. She has taken Rajasthan from the Indian National Congress and held its control on Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh. It has strengthen its position in Delhi where the Aam Aadmi Party has emerged as a victorious party.
It is believed that the BJP's prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, has played significant role in the uplift of the BJP. Moreover, BJP claims that 70% Muslim voters favor its program and policies. Nonetheless, several analysts firmly believe that Modi is a rigid Hindu Nationalist who failed to protect Muslims during sectarian riots in Gujrat causing more than 1000 persons dead in 2002. Both Rahul and Manmohan Singh accuse Modi that he had "presided over a massacre."
Narendra Modi, Chief Minister of Gujrat, has been appointed to run the campaign of Bharatiya Janata Party in the upcoming elections. Lal Krishna Advani, another candidate for the post of prime minister challenged his leadership for a short period. Modi and Advani both consider themselves the most favorite candidates for the post of prime minister. BJP claims that its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi can save the nation from corruption.
Aam Aadmi Party has a program to reform Indian society. It has a revolutionary program against corruption culture. According to the party's leader Arvind Kejriwal party would contest all 26 Lok Sabha seats from Gujarat. The Party is in favor of decentralization of powers and participation of the people in policy-making issues. The greatest achievement of the party is that it has stopped VIP culture in Delhi.
Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal claims that his government has brought corruption level down within a few months. AAP believes that power should be in the hands of common man and common people should be the policy makers of India. The party seems to be determined to change strong bureaucratic and weak accountability system. It wants to reform the police culture too. The party will contest the election in all seats in Delhi, Haryana and Gujrat. It will fight the election in 15 to 20 states.
The Indian National Congress is launching a campaign under the leadership of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Indian National Congress chairperson Sonia Gandhi and vice president Rahul Gandhi. Though Rahul is the product of dynasty, he claims that he does not believe in concept of dynasty. His slogan is that women and youth should be given democratic powers. Sonia Gandhi says that the election 2014 would be a battle for India.
Congress has lost its luster due to controversial statements of Rahul Gandhi, scams and corruption allegations against its political leaders. Moreover, fuel and oil prices have affected the Indian economy and common man in the past few years. The opposition has succeeded to paint Rahul Gandhi as immature and irresponsible politician waiting for his turn to serve as prime minister on dynasty basis. Congress has failed to solve core issues.
The emergence of AAP is result of the failure of Congress. The survey shows that Modi is the most popular candidate for the post of prime minister in India. Mamata Banerjee is another character popular for the same post outside BJP. India is passing through economic and social anarchy. Dynasty, democracy for common man and cult of corruption would be the major features of the elections 2014 in India.
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