The Chah Bahar Tripartite Agreement signed in Tehran on May
23 2016 between India, Iran and Afghanistan during PM Modi’s Iran visit signals
the dawn of a new power- play though essentially economic initially, but with
geopolitical implications.
The Chah Bahar Tripartite Agreement signals the commencement
of a new geopolitical power-play in which seemingly India, Iran and Afghanistan
are willing participants cooperating for regional economic gains and
connectivity, notwithstanding that such an initiative would rattle China and
Pakistan.
This Agreement
signals possibly a new trend for this Century where geoeconomics will tend to
predominate regional cooperative mechanisms initially, and where the strategic
underpinnings will ultimately surface on full maturity of the initiating steps.
The Chah Bahar Agreement between India, Iran and Afghanistan
with India in the lead provides a stark contrast to the China-led China Pakistan
Economic Corridor whose main determinant is not geoeconomics but outright
strategic foreplay to keep-out or limit India’s and the United States’
influence from Greater South West Asia.
Geopolitically, the Chah Bahar Tripartite Agreement knits
together the two civilsational regional powers, India and Iran, with
geostrategically important Afghanistan, which again historically has deep
linkages with both India and Iran. These linkages pre-date by centuries the
emergence of Pakistan, which shares 95% of its borders with India, Iran and
Afghanistan and with all three of them Pakistan can be said to be not on the
best terms of good neighbourliness.
The Chah Bahar Tripartite Agreement signed by the leaders of
India, Iran and Afghanistan focusses on the development of Iran’s Chah Bahar
Port as an economic hub from which will take off the ‘Transit and Transport
Corridor’ enabling both India and Iran to access Afghanistan which in turn
gains access to the Indian Ocean bypassing troublesome Pakistan. The Transit and
Trade Corridor will also provide India with access to Central Asian energy and
trade markets and further access to Russia and Europe. Iran too will similarly
gain.
The Chah Bahar Tripartite Agreement has significant
geoeconomics, geopolitical and geostrategic contours which are briefly analysed
in that order since it is the economics of the Agreement to begin with which
currently outweighs the potential or underlying political and strategic
significances. The last two named can be expected to be a natural corollary
once the economics germinates and gets get firmly embedded in the Tripartite
Relationship.
Geoeconomically, the Chah Bahar Tripartite Agreement meshes
together India’s booming economic growth and solid economy with hunger for
energy and mineral resources with Iran’s vast energy resources and the millions
of tons of mineral deposits of Afghanistan. Therefore, strong economic
interdependencies exist between India, Iran and Afghanistan which can fully
materialise with the “speedy construction and development” of Chah Bahar Port
and related infrastructure for which India has committed $ 5oo million.
India has earmarked $200 million for completion of two
terminals and five berths at Chah Bahar port. India has earmarked $ 300 million
for port development and related infrastructure. The Trade and Transit Corridor
will run from Chah Bahar to Zaranj on the Iran-Afghan border which is already
connected by a 135 miles Indian-built road to the Afghan radial network
enabling access to Russia and Europe.
Geopolitically, strong political ties have always existed
between India, Iran and Afghanistan which got subsumed by United States
military intervention in Afghanistan and its resultant American pandering of
Pak Army’s agenda and also United States sanctions on Iran. With USA finally
disillusioned with Pakistan’s duplicity and with normalisation of US-Iran
relations, one can expect greater political momentum in India-Iran-Afghanistan
political dynamics. Already, understandings have been reached between the three
nations on exchange of political and terrorism intelligence. It needs to be
highlighted that Pakistan state-sponsored terrorism equally plagues India, Iran
and Afghanistan.
Geostrategically, not explicit but potentially implicit, in
this significant Tripartite Agreement is that robust strategic convergences
exist between India, Iran and Afghanistan manifested in the India-Iran
Strategic Partnership and the India-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership
agreements already existing. This dimension can logically only increase as
China has yet to prove its credentials as a responsible stakeholder in the
region.
The China-Pakistan Axis and the China Pakistan Economic
Corridor linking Xingjiang with the Pakistani port of Gwadur only 72 Kms away
from Cha Bahar Port raises strong strategic concerns for India, Iran and
Afghanistan notwithstanding China’s overtures to Iran and Afghanistan.
The above should also be a strategic concern for the United
States with Pakistan soon hosting Chinese Navy presence at Gwadur Naval Base
detrimental to American security interests in Greater South West Asia.
Afghanistan being provided an alternative access to the
Indian Ocean other than unreliable blackmailing Pakistan would greatly reduce
American challenges being currently faced in Afghanistan because of the
‘Pakistan Factor’. This should prompt
the United States to put its full political and economic weight behind India’s
speedy execution of the Chah Bahar Port Project and related infrastructure.
Japan has already expressed interest to India for participation in this
direction.
While leaders of India, Iran and Afghanistan have been
highlighting and stressing on the economics and trade advantages of Chah Bahar
Port as a regional economic hub and example of regional cooperation and
integration, a point repeatedly stressed by the Iranian President, a survey of
the Iranian media on the subject indicates highlighting of ‘India wants to
challenge China’s power in Central and South Asia through the Chah Bahar Port.’
Some other Iranian media reports highlight that the Tripartite Agreement and
India’s commitment and investments in Chah Bahar Port will ring alarm bells in
Islamabad, China and Riyadh. In Iran therefore there is consciousness that the
Tripartite Agreement has great potential strategic significance and that should
be a welcome sign for India.
Iranian President Rouhani on signing of the Tripartite
Agreement declared that “Today is an important and historical day of
development of relations between the three countries” and further stressed that
“From Tehran, New Delhi and Kabul, this is a crucial message…..that the path to
progress for regional countries goes through joint cooperation and utilising
regional opportunities.” Is Pakistan listening to the Iranian President’s
advice earlier repeated in Pakistan during his visit there?
Afghan President Ghani lauded the Chah Bahar Port project
and the connected Transit and Transport Corridor which opens immense
opportunities for economic development of Afghanistan .Expressing his sentiments,
the Afghan President asserted that “Our will starts from Chah Bahar today but
its end will be an all-out comprehensive development and economic-cultural
cooperation,”
Indian PM Modi declared at the same occasion that “Today the
nature of global engagement requires an attitude more suitable to this century
and not the mind-set of the century gone-by.” These references were obviously
aimed at China and Pakistan hell-bent on creating regional turbulence as
opposed to regional economic cooperation.
Concluding one would like to highlight PM Modi’s declaring
the signing of the Tripartite Agreement as “This Agreement can change the
course of history”. Rightly said, Mr Prime Minister, but the final and crucial
responsibility to change the course of history through the Chah Bahar
Tripartite Agreement rests squarely on the shoulders of India which under your
dynamic leadership should fast-track the completion in record time of the Chah
Bahar Project unlike BJP Prime Minister Vajpayee who let the project languish.
The contemporaneous
strategic picture unfolding is propitious for India to take the lead in
signalling the new power-play as a pivotal player in ensuring the stability and
security of Greater South West Asia. India must not shy away from shouldering
geopolitical and associated burdens thrust on it as a ‘Pivotal Emerging Power’
and not be distracted out of concerns for China’s sensitivities.
Courtesy: South Asia Analysis Group
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