Col (Dr) PK
Vasudeva (Retd)
India and
Pakistan have, as
expected, failed to make
any headway in ending the
military standoff on
Siachen. The two sides
stuck to their stated
positions, merely
committed themselves to
"serious, sustained
and result-oriented
efforts" for an
amicable settlement of
the issue and
"acknowledged that
the ceasefire (in
Siachen) was holding
since 2003." Thus,
at the end of the talks
in Islamabad, the usual
joint statement was
released, followed by an
agreement to hold the
next secretary level
talks in Delhi on a
mutually convenient date.
It is no
secret that both the
countries have held many
rounds of discussions on
demilitarising the
glacier, known as the
world's highest
battlefield, where Indian
and Pakistani troops face
each other at elevations
between 3,600 m and 5,700
m in sub-zero
temperatures. The subject
has also been part of
peace talks between the
two nations since the 80s
after India captured
vantage positions in the
area.
Emerging
from the recent talks
with her Indian
counterpart Shashikant
Sharma, Pakistan's
Defence Secretary Nargis
Sethi had stated that
Islamabad wanted both
sides to simultaneously
pull out troops from
Siachen to 1984
positions. The deployment
of troops, it was
contended was affecting
the environment and talks
should be speeded.
New Delhi,
stung by the occupation
of the strategic heights
in the Kargil sector in
1999, has called on
Islamabad to authenticate
and demarcate the 110-km
Actual Ground Position
Line (AGPL) on the
Siachen glacier. It fears
that a troop pullback
"would set a
troubling precedent and
put pressure on New Delhi
to resolve the festering
dispute of Jammu and
Kashmir". The move
is aimed at thwarting the
possible re-induction of
troops by Pakistan after
any demilitarisation of
the glacier. India has
made it amply clear that
any settlement must
include the
authentication and
demarcation of the
current military
positions on Siachen.
While both
sides continue to hold
their positions, Pakistan
Army Chief Ashfaq Parvez
Kayani did at least put
the focus on the issue,
when in a rare statement
in April he stated that
the conflict should be
resolved. He did so at
Skardu, in
Pakistan-occupied
Kashmir, soon after
visiting Gyari, the site
of an avalanche in
Siachen that buried 124
soldiers of Pakistan's 6
Northern Light Infantry
and 11 civilians.
There is no
denying the fact that
every army jawan and most
officers would eagerly
look forward to a
peaceful settlement of
Siachen for after all,
they bear the brunt of
military operations in
the most extreme hostile
weather conditions.
Additionally, the
whopping amount of money
spent on the military
operation would be better
spent on roti-kapda-makan
(food, clothing and
house) for India's 80% of
the population which
lives, rather, survives
on less than $1 per day.
But this argument, while
valid in principle, hits
the hurdle of there can
be no compromise with
national security issues.
However, the
question about the
genuineness of Gen
Kayani's
"peace"
initiative is under
cloud. Apparently, it
seems to be driven by his
urgent need to cover up
the long-standing lie
sold to the Pakistani
people that their
soldiers are dying on the
Siachen glacier while
facing Indian troops.
However, Gayari is merely
in the Siachen region and
not on the glacier, where
Indian troops hold guard
on the commanding
heights. Demilitarisation
involves India losing
both strategic and
tactical advantage,
whereas for Pakistan it
is a strategic gain
traded off against a
small tactical loss.
It would be
unwise for New Delhi to
delink Siachen from other
issues such as cross
border terrorism etc.
Taking this call for
"peaceful
co-existence" from a
Pakistan Army Chief at
face value would be a
strategic folly. The
Pakistani establishment
be it civilian/military,
has always been
anti-India and gone back
on its word more than
once, thus making mockery
of New Delhi's several
initiatives for genuine
peace. It is true that
India wants peace, but it
would be imprudent to buy
that peace at major
security risks. Gen
Kayani cannot and should
not be trusted because
unprovoked firing
continues on the LoC and
Siachen.
Notably, as
per reports, Islamabad is
talking or has already
negotiated leasing the
Gilgit-Baltistan region,
which is part of Pakistan
Occupied Kashmir (POK),
to China for 50 years.
This includes the area
now occupied by Pakistan,
facing us at Siachen. If
India pulls out of
Siachen, re-occupation of
the posts will be almost
impossible, especially if
China sneaks into the
commanding heights
vacated by the Indian
troops. A Chinese
military commander with
the least bit of
initiative would move his
troops into forward posts
presently occupied by
Pakistani troops.
In such a
situation, there is bound
to be hostility between
India and China, which is
not a party to any
"peace"
agreements between New
Delhi and Islamabad. In
the context of China
having moved several
divisions of troops into
its Tibetan border with
India including missile
units within easy missile
strike range of New
Delhi, hostilities on
Siachen could trigger
unacceptable military
response from Beijing.
In the long
run, demilitarisation of
Siachen may be desirable,
but this is not the time,
when New Delhi is not in
a position of strategic
advantage. Today and in
the near future, India
will be on the back foot
because of growing
security liability in
Afghanistan (principally
due to the impending NATO
pull-out), having been
sucked into the region
because of our strategic
alignment with the US
following the India-US
nuclear deal and the Hyde
Act, which assumes
"congruence" in
foreign policy matters.
Intrusion
onto Siachen glacier by
Pakistani or Chinese
troops sneaking into
tactically strong posts
vacated by India after
demilitarisation will
lead to loss of the Shyok
and Nubra valleys and
permit a Pakistan-China
link-up between Gilgit
area and Aksai Chin area
under Chinese control and
areas illegally ceded to
China by Pakistan.
Unfortunately,
the military is not
directly involved in
decision-making at the
top-most level, the
National Security
Council. A bureaucrat
heads it as National
Security Advisor to the
Prime Minister and wonder
whether it can be said
that the military advice
has been sought except
perfunctorily? In a
democracy like ours, the
omission of the military
from the nation's highest
security decision-making
body must necessarily rue
the military, and
trusting Pakistan's
"peace"
overtures over India's
own military advice may
not be in India's
strategic best interest.
Conclusively
an early demilitarisation
of Siachen to settle the
dispute "now"
needs clear and realistic
rethinking. The political
and bureaucratic
leadership needs to work
in tandem with the
Chairman of the Chiefs of
Staff Committee (COSC)
when negotiating the
Siachen imbroglio. New
Delhi may commit a very
serious mistake by
agreeing to
demilitarising Siachen at
present, even though in
the long term, peace
between the two is
unquestionably desirable.
Islamabad
needs therefore to come
forward to instil faith
and confidence for a
lasting peace with India.
For starters, it must
demolish its
well-established 48
terrorist camps in PoK
that are carrying out
cross border terrorism on
the Indian territory.
Then only can New Delhi
consider its sincerity.
(INFA)
Courtesy : Daily Excelsior
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