The much-talked of ‘Patel Factor’ on which the Congress was banking heavily has failed to dent Modi’s campaign. His juggernaut has simply steam-rolled all opposition.
The exit polls also suggest substantial number of Muslims have voted for Modi and BJP. One poll pegged the figure at 23 per cent.
Modi is so way ahead of his nearest competitor in the race for ‘most popular Chief Minister’ that the gap is unbridgeable.
In terms of vote share, the BJP could garner up to 46-48 per cent of the popular vote, near 10 percentage points ahead of the Congress. The GPP, led by Keshubhai Patel, could end up with less than five per cent of the popular vote.
The exit poll carried out by C-Voter for Times Now predicted 119 to 129 seats for the BJP while the Congress is projected to win between 49 and 59 seats out of the total 182 seats.
News 24 showed that the BJP is likely to get 140 against the 117 seats it had won in 2007 Assembly poll as the party is expected to get 46 per cent of the total vote share. The poll carried out by Chanakya for the channel projected Congress to get 40 seats, which would be 19 short of the 59 seats it had won in 2007.
Headlines Today projected that the BJP would get between 118 and 128 seats while the Congress is likely to win between 50 and 56 seats with 37 per cent vote share.
The ABP News-AC Nielsen poll has predicted that the BJP will win 126 seats and the Congress 50, with others getting six seats.
The CNN-IBN/Week poll conducted by CSDS after the first phase of voting indicates that Modi will improve upon the 2007 tally of 117 seats. The poll suggests the BJP will win 53-63 seats, the Congress 19-27 seats and others 3-9 seats in the regions that went to polls in the first round of voting.
Extrapolating from these results, and with Modi rated as the most preferred Chief Minister by 41 per cent (Shankersinh Vaghela and Keshubhai get only eight per cent) of the voters, the channel has predicted a huge win for the BJP.
While C-Voter predicted a vote share of 46 per cent for the BJP against 37 per cent for the Congress, Chanakya said BJP is likely to get 50 per cent vote share against 35 per cent of Congress.
In Himachal Pradesh, C-Voter predicted 30 to 38 seats for the Congress while the BJP is likely to get 27 to 35 seats in the 68-member Assembly. Chanakya predicted the Congress could win 40 seats and the BJP 23 seats. Others may win five seats.
Interestingly, the CNN-IBN/Week poll indicates a cliff-hanger in Himachal Pradesh with both the BJP and the Congress poised to win anything between 29 and 35 seats.
Courtesy : Niti Central
No comments:
Post a Comment