Overall, the message from Bihar is ominous for
the BJP: the scale of another defeat, following the Delhi rout, shows that the
momentum has shifted decisively against the party. This is especially true when
the opposition unites against it as it so effectively did in Bihar. The
opposition, having smelt blood, will now unite nationally.
The BJP has disappointed its core
support base, comprising around 40 per cent of the electorate (including
allies), for three reasons.
One, by not pursuing cases against
allegedly corrupt members of the UPA government. The government was soft on
Robert Vadra till it was prodded to file proceedings against him on land deals
in Haryana. It took the aviation and home ministries 16 months to even strike
his name off the no-frisk VVIP list at airports. The centre has showed little
interest in pursuing the National Herald case against Rahul Gandhi and Sonia
Gandhi despite a trial court finding prima facie evidence to issue summons to
both as "accused".
Two, by allowing choreographed events to
derail its electoral campaigns. First, before the Delhi poll over bogus church
attacks. Second, before the Bihar poll over equally bogus claims of rising
intolerance in India. The perception battle was lost by appallingly amateurish
media management.
Three, by not controlling prices. The
prime minister's choice of chief economic advisor (CEA) Arvind Subramanian,
recommended by Arun Jaitley, was misguided. The CEA has added little of value
to economic policy. His comments three months ago on climate change - deeply
antithetical to India's interests - had to be publicly repudiated by
environment minister Prakash Javadekar. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
governor Raghuram Rajan, recruited by former finance minister P Chidambaram,
has not helped kickstart economic growth by cutting interest rates too little,
too late. His term ends in ten months.
The index of opposition unity (IOU) will
provide the BJP its sternest test in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Arithmetic
prevailed over chemistry in Bihar. It could do so in 2019. The prime minister
must refocus on development, not deity. Aspirational young Indians are
religious but not communal. Pushing Hindutva at the expense of Bharatiyata, as
I wrote here in September 2015, is counter-productive.
The message from Bihar is clear:
celebrate diversity. Induct more women and minorities into the cabinet. If they
are technocrats with domain knowledge, so much the better. Fifteen of new
Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau's 30-member cabinet are women. Four
ministers are Sikh. His defence minister, Harjit Sajjan, is a decorated Afghan
war veteran. The other Sikhs in Trudeau's rainbow cabinet are industry minister
Navdeep Bains, tourism minister Bardish Chagger and infrastructure minister
Amarjeet Sohi.
When asked why he had appointed 15 women
and four Sikhs out of 30 ministers, the charismatic Trudeau quipped:
"Because it's 2015. Get with it."
The takeaway for Prime Minister Narendra
Modi: be liberal on social and cultural issues, not just on the economy. The
NDA government is illiberal on social and cultural issues (not jettisoning
Section 377 on decriminalising gays is just one example) and is not liberal
enough on real economic reforms. Tax and labour reforms, for instance, are
stuck in the slothful 1980s. Even former finance minister P. Chidambaram has
wondered aloud why the regressive retrospective tax (introduced by his
predecessor Pranab Mukherjee when he was finance minister) hasn't yet been
repealed. This has severely impacted the confidence of foreign investors.
In Gujarat, Modi banished Vishwa Hindu
Parishad (VHP) leader Pravin Togadia for a decade and focused on development.
He was re-elected thrice. In the central government, he must control those in
his flock who spew venom. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) lives in a
different world. It may be critical to the BJP as a provider of organised cadre
during elections but its social and economic thinking is illiberal and out of
date. It would be a mistake to defend RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat's comment on
reviewing reservations, coming as it did in the middle of the Bihar campaign.
It reversed the momentum decisively in favour of the mahagathbandhan (MGB). The
error was compounded by not using other BJP leaders in the campaign to give the
impression of a cohesive team leading the charge rather than a one-man army.
The prime minister must speak more.
Every event of reasonable national importance deserves the prime minister's
attention. Barack Obama, David Cameron and leaders of other democracies speak
out frequently on issues that are politically, socially or culturally relevant.
So must Modi. Silence is not an option. I had used the exact same words -
"silence is not an option" - to criticise Manmohan Singh on a Times Now
Newshour debate way back in September 2012. The then prime minister's infamous
silences during the UPA government's humongous scams were as damaging to the
government's credibility as the prime minister's taciturnity today is to the
NDA government.
As an adjunct, the prime minister must
acquire a professional media team. The Press Information Bureau (PIB) is too
bureaucratic and hide-bound. What the prime minister needs is a competent media
cell attached to the PMO, which provides a daily 30-minute media briefing at
4.00 pm on current issues as, for instance, the White House unfailingly does.
The PM must throw economic
caution to the winds
Be bold - liberalise the economy.
Incremental reforms won't do. The bureaucracy is as slippery as ever. Make it
accountable for time-bound outcomes. Bring in professionals from outside with
specific domain knowledge.
It is also time to reshuffle the
cabinet. Ministers who are doing well should stay: Sushma Swaraj, Nirmala
Sitharaman, Piyush Goyal, Manohar Parrikar, Suresh Prabhu, Nitin Gadkari,
Dharmendra Pradhan and several others. But many are not pulling their weight.
They must be put on notice. Perform or be shuffled.
It is critical the PM hold quarterly
meetings with NDA allies led by the NDA convenor. Take them into confidence on
strategies and outcomes - from the corrosive situation in Nepal to the price of
tur dal. Be collective and decisive - not insular and indecisive. Otherwise,
allies could well abandon the BJP, one by one, before 2019. That includes the
Shiv Sena, the Akali Dal and the LJP.
It is equally important to implement
recent steps taken to strengthen foreign policy. Stay tough on Pakistan.
Recover lost ground with Nepal. Keep Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar on
your side. With the West, China and Japan, follow up on all investment
promises. Cement geostrategic ties. India has a huge consumer market and
unprecedented opportunities in infrastructure. Leverage these.
The prime minister's visit to Britain
beginning this Thursday (November 12) will be a test of how much and how
quickly foreign investment can be deployed for economic development. Economic
revival is now visible - Blackstone, ABB and Merck recently announced
significant investments in India, including making the country an export hub
for Asia and Africa.
The message from Bihar
Broadly, then, this is the picture that
emerges from the dust and debris of the BJP's Bihar defeat:
1. The BJP must deepen
economic reforms. It has two-and-a-half years to do this. By May 2018, the
countdown for the May 2019 Lok Sabha election will begin. By then if the
economy is not in top shape and food prices not in control, the BJP will suffer
a crushing defeat.
2. Anti-incumbency is
a big factor. It will hit the BJP with the force of a gale in 2019. The only
way to counter it is to place development at the centre of everything the party
now does.
3. Finally,
inclusiveness. Polarisation works as a short-term electoral tactic. But in the
longer term the only factor that will allow the BJP to win 2019 is
inclusiveness: with allies, with communities, and with ideas.
The BJP can take heart from the fact
that a convicted felon, Lalu Prasad Yadav, says he will lead the combined
opposition's campaign against Modi. This is the same man with whom Rahul Gandhi
refused to share the dais during the Bihar election campaign and who is out of
jail on bail over the fodder scam. If the BJP cannot even counter him when Lalu
launches his national anti-Modi campaign from Varanasi, it does not deserve to
govern India after 2019.
The media has shown how perceptions can
change the trajectory of an election. The orchestrated campaign on
"intolerance" is only one example. If the BJP cannot overcome the
dark machinations of Lutyens' media (it has inexplicably dragged its feet, for
example, on pursuing the Enforcement Directorate's charges of money laundering
against a TV channel), it can neither expect nor receive any sympathy.
Rajiv Gandhi was subject to relentless
attack between 1987 and 1989 by the opposition and the media over Bofors, Shah
Bano and the aborted anti-defamation bill. He plunged from over 400 seats in
the 1984 Lok Sabha election to less than 200 in 1989. Modi should study Rajiv,
circa 1987-89, and learn from his fall from grace.
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