India-China relations have come a long way since the 1962 border
war, mostly in the positive direction. India has over 4000 Kilometre
long border with China, but Beijing maintains it is much shorter because
it does not accept India’s territorial claims and sovereignty on
sections of the border.
Neither India nor China can wish each other away. As the two countries
continue to rise, with China still ahead of India the gap is slowly
narrowing but problems instead of receding are multiplying.
For India, the China policy is not a zero sum game. Successive Indian
Prime Ministers have proved it and Prime Minister Modi has done so most
emphatically. Mr. Modi’s policy is not to counter China but to promote a
shared vision of mutual benefit and developing together. Indian
governments, including the present Modi government, have tried to ensure
that China is not rubbed the wrong way. In fact, India can be faulted
for conceding too much at times.
India’s efforts have been to try and build trust. But trust must be
verifiable, not built on thin air. There is a huge problem here.
One would dare say that there is a lack of understanding in the Indian
establishment dedicated to China policy, of understanding the Chinese
mind and interpreting what the Chinese say and what the Chinese media
writes.
Over a decade ago an idea was being bandied about in the Indian
establishment that the Chinese official media such as the party’s mouth
piece the ‘People’s Daily’, the official news agency the Xinhua, or the military PLA flagship newspaper ‘the Liberation Army Daily’
and others are like the Indian media. They are not. Why such an idea
was floated is anybody’s guess. The Chinese establishment, both of the
party and the government, never hid the fact that the Chinese media
served their establishment by law enshrined in the party’s and the
State’s constitution.
Now President Xi Jinping has made it abundantly clear that the media
serves the Party and the State. Any violation attracts strict action.
A recent example- A documentary film was aired over the Chinese Central
Television (CCTV)showing the Lashkar-e-Toiba’s (LET) involvement in the
Mumbai Terrorist attack. The reaction from some quarters in India was
that China may be moving to support India in listing Jaish-e-Mohammd
(JEM) Chief Masood Azhr as a terrorist in the UN Terrorism Committee.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded (June 16) officially, saying
that the documentary “does not represent the position of Chinese
government.” Spokesman Hang Lei clarified that “China’s stance against
terrorism is unchanged.”.
The message was very clear: China is not going to change its stand on Masood Azhar.
The documentary is question was an American production. It was
translated into Chinese by the CCTV. But it was not an innocent show
either. Nothing can be aired by the CCTV without official clearance.
It was aired to see India’s position/reaction on the Masood Azhar
issue. The other reason, to educate the Chinese people about the threat
from Islamic terrorism with Pakistan not named but in a parenthesis.
China is acutely aware of the potential of Pakistan-based terrorist
groups, to indoctrinate, train and arm Uighur militants fighting for
independence in Xinjiang. The only time that a senior leader had named
Pakistan in providing the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM)
sanctuary was in 2008, in the run up to the Beijing Olympics.
Since then, China readjusted its strategy. It has co-opted the
increasingly dependant Pakistan’s establishment. It has also opened
discreet communication with Pakistan’s right wing religious groups. It
has maintained close contacts with the Taliban (Afghan) which views
China as a friend. All stitched up in this region, at least for now.
In a manner, some of these Pakistani groups are turning out to be
China’s sleeping assets. Masood Azhar thanked China for its stance
against India.
China’s stand, let alone fight, against international terrorism has
been deceptive. Its fight against “three evils”- religious extremism,
separatism and militant violence- remains within the borders of the
country. Beyond that, it is either silent or cursory or juggling with
semantics. As long as China is protected from external extremism, it
can take care of its internal militancy and separatists. Meanwhile, it
will remain happy with India being slowly bled by terrorism.
China will be mindful of its assets and interests. Currently, they are
vulnerable in Pakistan. The Pakistan Army has dedicated an army
division to secure the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. (CPEC).
Returning to the Azhar issue, it is not a nonnegotiable issue for
China. Putting a technical hold on the Indian move in the United
Nations means a door has been kept open. Its moves will depend upon
circumstances. If and when China finds its position untenable, or can
benefit by notifying Azhar as a terrorist, it will go along.
India’s membership to the Nuclear Supplier’s Group (NSG) is a much
bigger issue for China and its ally Pakistan. The next meeting of the
48 member group to be held in Seoul on June 24-25 will consider India’s
membership. China has come out openly with its opposition to India’s
bid and is supporting Pakistan’s membership saying that India and
Pakistan are both non signatories to the Nuclear Non Proliferation
Treaty (NPT). The decision of the NSG is on a consensus. Therefore,
one member can take the other forty-seven down!
Given Pakistan’s proliferation record, its nuclear button in the hands
of the army, with its tactical weapons deployed on India’s borders
controlled by a Brigadier or a Divisional commander, Pakistan has no
chance to go through even if it had signed the NPT.
Pakistan is a highly explosive concoction of nuclear weapons, jehadis
of all kinds ( with some even fighting the State), inflamed borders and a
dysfunctional political structure; it is a fit case for nuclear
disarming. Its deployment of tactical nuclear weapons is akin to North
Korea threatening South Korea and Japan with nuclear strikes. Pakistan
threatens the region and has avoided strict international sanctions
because of its critical location.
The NPT is no longer worth the paper it is written on- North Korea is a
case in point. NSG has been violated by at least one of its
members-namely China. Beijing joined the NSG in 2004-did not disclose
its close involvement of its Pakistan’s civil nuclear programme, and
continues to supply nuclear reactors (power) to Pakistan with the excuse
that it had signed the contract with Pakistan before it joined the NSG.
In all legality China should have been expelled from the NSG.
Apparently the Chinese concluded that India failed to understand why
they were obstructing New Delhi’s NSG membership. They carefully noted
every step India was taking to either pressurise them or placate them at
the same time. Mr. Modi’s latest surge to Switzerland, the United
States and Mexico and the understanding with Italy, plus his telephone
call to Russian President Putin, seeking support for NSG also signalled
India’s diplomatic moves to isolate China in the NSG.
An article on the issue in the official Chinese Newspaper, the Global Times (June 14, 2016) a subsidiary of the Party mouth piece the People’s Daily appeared to have further clarified China’s position. It made the following points.
* Washington views New Delhi as a balancing factor in its pivot to the Asia-Pacific strategy. Its supply of nuclear technology is to enhance India’s deterrence capability is to put China in check.
* Pakistan is not willing to see an increasing nuclear gap with India and the outcome will be a nuclear race.
* It will jeopardise China’s national interests.
* US interest is to sell nuclear technology to India ( for Indian groups who oppose the India-US nuclear deal to note)
The Chinese position has become more clear with the Global Times
article. Protecting and promoting Pakistan is only a small part of the
Chinese argument. The much larger and long term Chinese planning is to
block empowerment of India and a possible India-US strategic
collaboration to prevent China’s hegemony over Asia.
India has separated its civil and military nuclear programmes and
placed itself under IAEA supervision. India’s development requires
massive increase of electric power capacity and nuclear energy will
contribute to that. Why is China concerned over India getting nuclear
power plants from Westinghouse (USA)?
Development of India’s military capacity especially nuclear and missile
capability is a concern for China and will neutralise China’s
advantage. India does not require the massive nuclear and missile
stockpile that China has built and continues to expand to eventually
counter the US.
The Global Times says “Its (USA’s) supply of nuclear technology to
enhance India’s deterrence capability is to put China in check. It goes on to say that this will “jeopardise China’s interests.”
The Indian Government must understand that no amount of placating China
will help in the NSG issue. Omitting mention of the South China Sea in
the Modi Obama joint statement is June does not impress China. Nor
does easing of visas and glossing over Chinese military intrusions.
India must take note of the recent upgradation of the Tibet Military
Command, specifically targeting the India-China border. India needs
fast paced defence upgradation. It is also time that India seriously
thinks about China’s on going nuclear and missile proliferation to
Pakistan and North Korea.
Hit where it hurts the most. The heavens will not come down.
If a step is taken it must be well thought out and with the stamina to
stay on course.
The writer is a New Delhi based strategic analyst. He can be reached at e mail- grouchohart@yahoo.com
Courtesy: South Asia Analysis Group
No comments:
Post a Comment