What India’s surgical strike in
Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) has done is that it has changed the rules of
engagement in the ongoing proxy war waged lby Pakistan on India since the last
three decades. It was Pakistan that had been calibrating this war, and India
had reacted tentatively but never in a convincing manner.
The absence of conviction was due
to a lack of complete understanding of this new sub-conventional form of
warfare, despite the fact that this kind of warfare was found to be intrinsic
to Pakistan in all engagements, i.e., in 1947, 1965, 1971 and during the Kargil
conflict. This jihadi proxy war was honed by Pakistan’s military-intelligence
complex to great refinement during the so-called Islamic war against Soviet
forces in Afghanistan.
The use of irregulars has been a
conscious strategic feature of Pakistan military in achieving military
objectives. Choosing a passage from a report by a senior official of Ayub
Khan’s intelligence and research outfit – the Bureau of National
Reconstruction, entrusted with the task of identifying and recommending
solutions to Pakistan’s security problems – Husain Haqqani, in his book
Pakistan between Mosque and Military, quotes:
“In its manpower, Pakistan is very fortunate. In some of the regions,
people have long traditions of irregular fighting. Now that they have got a
homeland and a state based on their own ideology they are bound to show great
courage and determination to defend them. Then why not train irregular fighters
whom even the existing industries of Pakistan can well equip? Of course, they
will have to be politically conscious. They will have to be aware of the stakes
involved in such a struggle, which is bound to be protracted. Their training in
warfare will have to be strenuous and wide in scope. The irregular fighter will
have to be shrewd, familiar with local environmental factors, aware of the
psychology of his own people and of the enemy and of the political consequences
of the struggle. Irregular warfare can help in reducing the crucial nature of
the initial battles of Pakistan. It can help in spreading out prolonging
action. The essence of this irregular warfare is to deny the enemy and target
and keep attacking him again at unexpected places…Lack of military formalities
in the eyes of military experts seems to detract from the respectability of
irregular warfare. But actually, it is this lack of formal logic and system
which is making it increasingly important in this age of missiles and nuclear
weapons.”
Every word said above has
resonance in today’s context, yet we could not jettison the mindset of the
Second World War narrative of war. The above narrative written at least five
decades ago factors in the unhindered scope of irregular warfare between two
extremes of conventional and nuclear war. It needs to be reiterated that when
this was written, Pakistan was far from even dreaming about acquiring nuclear
weapons. Our slavish European mindset of warfare in total disregard to the
realities of the sub-continent has cost us dearly in terms of appropriate
orientation, training and response.
The surgical strike at the launch
pads of the jihadis in PoK has delivered a new message, and that being that
India is now no longer going to be entrapped in the cycle of terrorist attack
followed by a dose of talks and goodwill exchanges, only to be followed by
another terrorist attack. We have demonstrated that this cyclic nature of proxy
war will now be punctuated by heavy Indian intervention, thus disrupting the
very cycle to our advantage, and till the destruction of Pakistan’s war waging
potential.
The cyclic nature of the proxy
war waged by Pakistan had spawned a huge industry, i.e., a military-jihadi
complex in Pakistan and its affiliates in India. The Indian affiliates
comprising some intellectuals, some segments of the media, and even some
retired diplomats and military personnel were at their desperate best to
dissuade India from taking any action in reply to the Uri attack. Some of the
worst government baiters of the present government were seen to be praising the
prime minister for his restraint and maturity. They did betray a sense of
nervousness at a possible Indian action, and the impact that it would have on the
thriving proxy war industry.
The agents of proxy war in India
have been hysterical in warning India of a massive retaliation by Pakistan
consequent to the surgical strike. There can be no greater injustice to the
Indian people, the biggest and unsuspecting sufferers of Pakistan’s proxy war,
by use of the word ‘retaliation’. It is a bad word in the context of Pakistan
since India is the victim and the aggrieved party. Are they making a case that
Pakistan has a right to terrorise, since we have now refused to accept its
jihadi terrorism? Hence, any so-called retaliation from Pakistan will be
construed as an attack on India. In that eventuality, we will respond even more
heavily and henceforth the onus to end the cycle of proxy war will be on
Pakistan.
The Indian affiliates of
Pakistan’s jihadi-military complex have been warning their fellow Indians about
unknown outcomes of our pro-active action. The use of irregulars not only
detracts the Pakistan Army from professionalism, it also infuses a sense of
exaggerated sense of self-importance and military prowess amongst the jihadis.
They come to view themselves as equals, if not superior to the professional
army. The key motivating factors for such groups can never be the same as those
of a professional army, and therefore, their marriage in the long run is bound
to be counter-productive, rather disastrous. It can be stated that there would
be no other outcome beyond what India has already experienced in the last three
decades. Pakistan has already reached the level of ‘suicide bombers’ and cannot
go beyond.
The future of Pakistan is bleak.
Through the 1980s and mid-1990s, the three pillars of Pakistan were the
military, the prime minister and the president, referred to as ‘Troika’. This
has undergone a fundamental change. The jihadi outfits have become the second
most important pillar of Pakistan after the military. A blow to this pillar
could be fatal for the country.
As far as the diplomatic
isolation of Pakistan is concerned, India has never been geopolitically in a
more envious position. The reference to proofs and evidence of Pakistan’s
jihadi attacks on India is basically for consumption of the Western world. The
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces, led by America in
Afghanistan, has been an equal if not worse sufferer of Pakistan’s jihadi
depredations in Afghanistan. The NATO has lost more than 5,000 security
personnel at the hands of jihadis orchestrated by Pakistan. Majority of the
terrorist attacks in most parts of the world have Pakistani footprints. All
South Asian nations have been buffeted by Pakistan’s jihadi complex. Bangladesh
in particular has experienced murderous machinations by Pakistan’s jihadis.
As a last resort, the agents of
proxy war in both the countries have been flaunting the Russia and China card.
The import of Pakistan-Russia military exercise was highly exaggerated. In
international relations, it is seldom the syndrome that ‘either you are with me
or against me’. Moreover, India is not an insignificant market for Russian military
equipment. Geopolitics also dictates that since Russia has now bounced back
into reckoning in West Asia, it would not be comfortable with another player in
the region by way of Gwadar (CPEC).
Given the territorial embrace
that China has made with Pakistan by way of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
(CPEC), it is a foregone conclusion that it will support Pakistan indirectly
and not directly. There would be ‘watery threats’ and indirect support for
‘Masood Azhar’ at the United Nations by China. Also being hyperbolised is the
probable Brahmaputra threat by China. It needs to be mentioned that 80 per cent
of the catchment area of Brahmaputra River is in India. India need not be
discomfited by this well-expected Chinese reaction, after all it has to accommodate
concerns of its client state. Moreover, China with its current limited global
strategic reach is known to cultivate, create and flaunt rogue states – first
North Korea and now Pakistan.
Nevertheless, the dilemma for
China would be that if it allows the jihadi groups to flourish in Pakistan,
leave alone the threat to its Xinjiang province, even CPEC will not be
successful. The worst manifestation of the ongoing CPEC project is that in
Pakistan, it has become a volatile mix of expectations, jihadism, insurgency
and big power concerns. It is precisely for this reason that consequent to the
Indian spark, the demand for Balochistan independence has acquired momentous
proportion. The insurgency in Afghanistan has rendered Pashtun in a volatile
and destabilised state. Operation Zarb-e-Azb has made matters worse. The
clamour of Pashtunistanis is acquiring unprecedented violent overtones.
The bane of Pakistan is its
founder, Jinnah. Jinnah may have been a brilliant lawyer, but he was a man of
skewed intellect. His ambition and hatred for his motherland India was
overriding, otherwise, he would have never underestimated the pull of ethnicity
over religion. East Pakistan went away to become Bangladesh, how can this story
end here? The artificiality of the geographical construct called Pakistan is
bound to give away.
The Indian response to proxy war
in the last few months in strategy, diplomacy, and now military has unhinged
Pakistan. The narrative has changed. The Western world must realise that had
India not carried out the high level of attrition of Pakistan-sponsored jihadis
in Kashmir in the last three decades, so many 9/11s would have struck them. Had
India not done so, jihadis would have invaded the Western world like pests.
While detracting India from responding
to Pakistan’s jihadi proxy war by invoking ‘nuclear flashpoint’, the Western
world would do well to conjure the very probable prospect of nuclear weapons
landing in the hands of the jihadi outfits. In the latter scenario, the most
sinister threat would be to the Western countries. The West therefore has to
thank India on many counts.
It is nobody’s idea to suggest
that Pakistan would put an immediate stop to jihadi misadventures against
India. The difference now will be the unpredictability of nature, place and
level of Indian response. Pakistan’s deniability henceforth will be met by
overwhelming overt Indian action. The era of deniability and cycle of terror is
now a thing of past for Pakistan.
By RSN Singh
RSN Singh is a former military
intelligence officer who later served in the Research and Analysis Wing, or
R&AW and author of books Asian Strategic and Military Perspective and The
Military Factor in Pakistan. His latest book is The Unmaking of Nepal.
Courtesy: Indian Defence Review
Indian Defence Review
The
absence of conviction was due to lack of complete understanding of this
new sub-conventional form of warfare, despite the fact that this kind
of warfare was found to be intrinsic to Pakistan in all engagements,
i.e. in 1947, 1965, 1971 and during Kargil conflict. This jihadi proxy
war was honed by Pakistan’s military-intelligence complex to great
refinement during the so-called Islamic war against Soviet forces in
Afghanistan.
The use of irregulars has been a conscious strategic fea ..
