Do political parties own communities
or is it the other way round? Do voters exercise their franchise according to
their will, or do they vote or cross-vote as advised by the village-level
politicians?
For analysis of voter behavior in the by-elections, one should hear the
Congress leaders rather than reading newspapers or watching TV news channels.
While the TDP leaders met under the leadership of Chandrababu Naidu to take
stock of the situation and decided to dissect and find out the reasons for yet
another defeat, the Congress leaders are as undisciplined and subjective as
ever.
Lagadapati Rajagopal, Vijayawada MP, has been behaving more as an expert pollster than a Congress leader since 2009 elections. He gave to the people the benefit of his newly acquired knowledge of opinion polls and exit polls. Then it was the turn of Rayapati Sambasiva Rao, MP, representing the neighboring Guntur, to visit Delhi to have the darshan of the Congress deity before chatting his heart out with the media.
Two ministers from Rayalaseema, T G Venkatesh and Erasu Pratap Reddy, went to Delhi to tell the people back home that the time has come to give away Telangana State. It happened to be a one-day stand as usual. All the four Congress leaders made it clear that the government in the State had not been performing and the weak leadership at the State level was responsible for the rout. P Sankar Rao was the first, as is his wont, to fire the salvo at the Chief Minister, followed by a number of Congress leaders.
But the analysis of Rayapati, who does not claim to be an expert like Lagadapati, is interesting. He says Christians (of AP) have more faith in YS Jaganmohan Reddy than in Sonia Gandhi. According to him, Kapus voted for Jagan despite Chiranjeevi merging his PRP with the Congress and Kammas have no trust in Chandrababu Naidu, TDP chief. This aspect has to be studied to understand the political currents and cross-currents in AP.
Firstly, one has to be clear whether political parties own communities or vice versa. Even political observers and specialists talk in terms of one community dominating a particular party, making the community a suffix to the name of the party. Common people refer to political parties in terms of community: Reddy party (Congress), Kamma party (TDP), Dalit Party (BSP), Yadava Party (SP), Kurmi Party (JD-U), etc.
There may be more Reddys among Congress MLAs than other castes, but all its voters are not Reddys. The Congress vote bank comprises more voters from Dalit, Muslim and other communities than Reddy community. Same is the case with the TDP. There are more BC voters in the TDP kitty than Kammas. It is not as though all the Reddys vote for the Congress and the Kammas for TDP. No community owns any party. But powerful persons in the community own the party.
Though there are more SC votes than Reddy votes in the Congress bank, the party is owned by Reddys, more importantly powerful Reddys. Likewise, the TDP, which has more voters among BCs than Kammas, is owned by the latter. The rich and the powerful among Kammas dominate its affairs.
The impression that cross-voting takes place according to the game-plan of the party leaders, and that match-fixing works out, is unfounded. There may be a small percentage of voters who blindly follow the diktat of their local leaders, but most of the votes go by their own preference.
The results of the by-polls and the polarization of political forces that is expected to gain momentum post mini-general elections point to the caste-wise preferences that have manifested in the pattern of voting. Rayapati may be right to the extent that Chiranjeevi’s campaign has not brought all the Kapu votes to the Congress. Just as Dasari Narayana Rao, former MP and Union Minister, could not bring the Kapu votes to the Congress, Chiranjeevi also may have disappointed some leaders in his party.
In spite of this, the Congress is likely to be branded a Kapu Party willy-nilly. It does not mean that only Kapus are going to vote for the party. It means Kapus would be dominating it. The talk in the air, after the expected sweep by YSRCP, is that Reddys in all parties are bound to jump, sooner or later, on the bandwagon of Jagan. Rajya Sabha Member Chiranjeevi has dominated Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy and PCC chief Botcha Satyanarayana in the elections, emerging as a star campaigner. The two seats bagged by the Congress have been won by the erstwhile PRP candidates, both of whom lost to the Congress in 2009 by narrow margins.
Both Trimurthulu of Ramachandrapuram and Subbarayudu of Narsapuram are Kapus. No matter what Rayapati says, the Congress high command, fed for long with the caste angle in politics, would understand this victory as a triumph of Kapus under the leadership of Chiranjeevi. Had the Congress retained the prestigious Tirupati seat also, Kiran Reddy would have shared credit with Chiranjeevi. Botcha drew a blank in North Andhra. Among the three Congress musketeers, Chiranjeevi alone returned in one piece, so to say.
The by-elections have projected YSRCP as the main challenger to the ruling party, with the TDP unable to win a single seat, though it stood second in 10 constituencies. While the YSRCP surprised observers with a spirited fight it offered to the TRS, the votes polled by the TDP in Parkal (30,000) baffled them. Whether the Congress high command would go for window-dressing by announcing a financial package for Telangana or an overhaul by changing chief minister or a surgery by dividing the State into two parts is not clear at the moment.
Even if the State were to be intact, as it appears likely (as per the perceived preference of the Congress presidential candidate Pranab Mukherjee), headed by the present incumbent or with a Chief Minister from Telangana, the Congress is likely to face the general elections with Chiranjeevi as the leader of the party’s rank and file. He may be taken soon as a minister in the Union Cabinet, but would perhaps be drafted for party work at an appropriate time.
In case the Congress high command thinks that Chiranjeevi will not be able to stop Jagan’s juggernaut, it may then opt for reconciliation with the young rebel. It may appear difficult as both the sides have gone very far, but nothing is impossible in politics whose hallmark is opportunism.MIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi, who visited Jagan at Chanchalguda jail, is an excellent negotiator and has the right connections in Delhi. If the Congress is prepared to carve a separate State and take the TRS into its fold, its prospects in the next elections in Telangana region would be bright.
At the same time, if Jagan could be “persuaded” to lead the party In Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema with Chiranjeevi as the second in command, the party can be assured of a certain sweep. If retaining power in Delhi is considered a matter of utmost importance, Sonia, who said nothing in public against Jagan or his father, can always smile at him and wink at the CBI. The State which has been the citadel of the Congress would remain with it, albeit in two parts.
If, on the other hand, division and reconciliation are out of the question and fighting it out with all the might is the only option, the Congress has to go for a complete makeover on both counts. First, it has to unequivocally declare that it is for united Andhra Pradesh and it has to go to the people with the new policy and try to win back their hearts. Dubious and harmful tactics should be given up forthwith. A clear stand by the party high command would give clarity to the party leaders at the State and at lower levels.
The established leaders who are keen on re-election, and doubt the capacity of their party to get the votes, may go with TRS or float a separate outfit. But the party can build new leaders in the two years left for the general elections. If the Congress boldly takes the plunge, the TDP will not be far behind. It has to spell its stand, either way, in no uncertain terms.
The second important step the Congress high command has to take is to revive governance in the State. It has to drop the ministers who received notices from the apex court on charges of corruption, and also continue with the ACB raids and the process of cleansing the administration of corrupt elements and practices. It has to establish a transparent and efficient rule.
If the State were to be one, a Telangana person at the helm would add no value for the Congress. Nor would it satisfy the people of Telangana. This time, it is not a quarrel with the chief minister as it was in 1969 and 1972. The ultimate goal of Marri Chenna Reddy, the leader of Telangana Praja Samiti, was to dislodge Kasu Brahmananda Reddy. Even in 1972, the separate Andhra movement was aimed at dethroning PV Narasimha Rao who took the land reforms and the Mulki rules rather seriously.
The people of Telangana won’t feel elated if a Jaipal Reddy or a Jana Reddy or a D Srinivas is made the Chief Minister. The question is whether the State should be united or divided. Even after the Congress and the TDP declare their policy of united State and canvass support for their stand, if the people vote for the TRS or the BJP or any other party which is for a separate State, then the verdict would be unambiguous.
The confusion and uncertainty would end when people decide one way or the other. The recent by-elections have made it abundantly clear that both the Congress and the TDP have nothing to lose in Telangana by stopping the double game of self-deception. Persisting in the same path would be foolhardy.
Lagadapati Rajagopal, Vijayawada MP, has been behaving more as an expert pollster than a Congress leader since 2009 elections. He gave to the people the benefit of his newly acquired knowledge of opinion polls and exit polls. Then it was the turn of Rayapati Sambasiva Rao, MP, representing the neighboring Guntur, to visit Delhi to have the darshan of the Congress deity before chatting his heart out with the media.
Two ministers from Rayalaseema, T G Venkatesh and Erasu Pratap Reddy, went to Delhi to tell the people back home that the time has come to give away Telangana State. It happened to be a one-day stand as usual. All the four Congress leaders made it clear that the government in the State had not been performing and the weak leadership at the State level was responsible for the rout. P Sankar Rao was the first, as is his wont, to fire the salvo at the Chief Minister, followed by a number of Congress leaders.
But the analysis of Rayapati, who does not claim to be an expert like Lagadapati, is interesting. He says Christians (of AP) have more faith in YS Jaganmohan Reddy than in Sonia Gandhi. According to him, Kapus voted for Jagan despite Chiranjeevi merging his PRP with the Congress and Kammas have no trust in Chandrababu Naidu, TDP chief. This aspect has to be studied to understand the political currents and cross-currents in AP.
Firstly, one has to be clear whether political parties own communities or vice versa. Even political observers and specialists talk in terms of one community dominating a particular party, making the community a suffix to the name of the party. Common people refer to political parties in terms of community: Reddy party (Congress), Kamma party (TDP), Dalit Party (BSP), Yadava Party (SP), Kurmi Party (JD-U), etc.
There may be more Reddys among Congress MLAs than other castes, but all its voters are not Reddys. The Congress vote bank comprises more voters from Dalit, Muslim and other communities than Reddy community. Same is the case with the TDP. There are more BC voters in the TDP kitty than Kammas. It is not as though all the Reddys vote for the Congress and the Kammas for TDP. No community owns any party. But powerful persons in the community own the party.
Though there are more SC votes than Reddy votes in the Congress bank, the party is owned by Reddys, more importantly powerful Reddys. Likewise, the TDP, which has more voters among BCs than Kammas, is owned by the latter. The rich and the powerful among Kammas dominate its affairs.
The impression that cross-voting takes place according to the game-plan of the party leaders, and that match-fixing works out, is unfounded. There may be a small percentage of voters who blindly follow the diktat of their local leaders, but most of the votes go by their own preference.
The results of the by-polls and the polarization of political forces that is expected to gain momentum post mini-general elections point to the caste-wise preferences that have manifested in the pattern of voting. Rayapati may be right to the extent that Chiranjeevi’s campaign has not brought all the Kapu votes to the Congress. Just as Dasari Narayana Rao, former MP and Union Minister, could not bring the Kapu votes to the Congress, Chiranjeevi also may have disappointed some leaders in his party.
In spite of this, the Congress is likely to be branded a Kapu Party willy-nilly. It does not mean that only Kapus are going to vote for the party. It means Kapus would be dominating it. The talk in the air, after the expected sweep by YSRCP, is that Reddys in all parties are bound to jump, sooner or later, on the bandwagon of Jagan. Rajya Sabha Member Chiranjeevi has dominated Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy and PCC chief Botcha Satyanarayana in the elections, emerging as a star campaigner. The two seats bagged by the Congress have been won by the erstwhile PRP candidates, both of whom lost to the Congress in 2009 by narrow margins.
Both Trimurthulu of Ramachandrapuram and Subbarayudu of Narsapuram are Kapus. No matter what Rayapati says, the Congress high command, fed for long with the caste angle in politics, would understand this victory as a triumph of Kapus under the leadership of Chiranjeevi. Had the Congress retained the prestigious Tirupati seat also, Kiran Reddy would have shared credit with Chiranjeevi. Botcha drew a blank in North Andhra. Among the three Congress musketeers, Chiranjeevi alone returned in one piece, so to say.
The by-elections have projected YSRCP as the main challenger to the ruling party, with the TDP unable to win a single seat, though it stood second in 10 constituencies. While the YSRCP surprised observers with a spirited fight it offered to the TRS, the votes polled by the TDP in Parkal (30,000) baffled them. Whether the Congress high command would go for window-dressing by announcing a financial package for Telangana or an overhaul by changing chief minister or a surgery by dividing the State into two parts is not clear at the moment.
Even if the State were to be intact, as it appears likely (as per the perceived preference of the Congress presidential candidate Pranab Mukherjee), headed by the present incumbent or with a Chief Minister from Telangana, the Congress is likely to face the general elections with Chiranjeevi as the leader of the party’s rank and file. He may be taken soon as a minister in the Union Cabinet, but would perhaps be drafted for party work at an appropriate time.
In case the Congress high command thinks that Chiranjeevi will not be able to stop Jagan’s juggernaut, it may then opt for reconciliation with the young rebel. It may appear difficult as both the sides have gone very far, but nothing is impossible in politics whose hallmark is opportunism.MIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi, who visited Jagan at Chanchalguda jail, is an excellent negotiator and has the right connections in Delhi. If the Congress is prepared to carve a separate State and take the TRS into its fold, its prospects in the next elections in Telangana region would be bright.
At the same time, if Jagan could be “persuaded” to lead the party In Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema with Chiranjeevi as the second in command, the party can be assured of a certain sweep. If retaining power in Delhi is considered a matter of utmost importance, Sonia, who said nothing in public against Jagan or his father, can always smile at him and wink at the CBI. The State which has been the citadel of the Congress would remain with it, albeit in two parts.
If, on the other hand, division and reconciliation are out of the question and fighting it out with all the might is the only option, the Congress has to go for a complete makeover on both counts. First, it has to unequivocally declare that it is for united Andhra Pradesh and it has to go to the people with the new policy and try to win back their hearts. Dubious and harmful tactics should be given up forthwith. A clear stand by the party high command would give clarity to the party leaders at the State and at lower levels.
The established leaders who are keen on re-election, and doubt the capacity of their party to get the votes, may go with TRS or float a separate outfit. But the party can build new leaders in the two years left for the general elections. If the Congress boldly takes the plunge, the TDP will not be far behind. It has to spell its stand, either way, in no uncertain terms.
The second important step the Congress high command has to take is to revive governance in the State. It has to drop the ministers who received notices from the apex court on charges of corruption, and also continue with the ACB raids and the process of cleansing the administration of corrupt elements and practices. It has to establish a transparent and efficient rule.
If the State were to be one, a Telangana person at the helm would add no value for the Congress. Nor would it satisfy the people of Telangana. This time, it is not a quarrel with the chief minister as it was in 1969 and 1972. The ultimate goal of Marri Chenna Reddy, the leader of Telangana Praja Samiti, was to dislodge Kasu Brahmananda Reddy. Even in 1972, the separate Andhra movement was aimed at dethroning PV Narasimha Rao who took the land reforms and the Mulki rules rather seriously.
The people of Telangana won’t feel elated if a Jaipal Reddy or a Jana Reddy or a D Srinivas is made the Chief Minister. The question is whether the State should be united or divided. Even after the Congress and the TDP declare their policy of united State and canvass support for their stand, if the people vote for the TRS or the BJP or any other party which is for a separate State, then the verdict would be unambiguous.
The confusion and uncertainty would end when people decide one way or the other. The recent by-elections have made it abundantly clear that both the Congress and the TDP have nothing to lose in Telangana by stopping the double game of self-deception. Persisting in the same path would be foolhardy.
Courtesy : Hans India
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