GVL Narasimha Rao
As the nation awaits the prime minister-designate Narendra Modi to take over the reins of office at the Centre, it is instructive to understand the meaning of the 2014 verdict and what has contributed to the mandate for the BJP and the rout of the Congress.
The principal question that begs of an answer is whether the mandate was a positive vote for the hugely popular Narendra Modi who was the sole focus and attraction of the BJP campaign (let there be no doubts about it), or was it a negative vote against the misrule of the Congress. Evidently, it is a combination of both.
Make no mistake; the factor responsible for unleashing the positive vote and driving the Congress vote down was in a very large measure the leadership of Narendra Modi. In a signed article in RSS weekly Organiser in May 2012, I wrote, “Merely banking on the Congress party’s sliding popularity may take the BJP only half the distance in its run for power. Projecting charismatic leadership is essential..Else, it may have to be content to jockey for some relevance in a post poll scenario to bring a motley third front coalition to power..Narendra Modi as the BJP’s mascot has the ability to expand the BJP’s appeal and vote base all over the country..Narendra Modi as the leader of the BJP would deliver huge gains to it in the battleground state of Uttar Pradesh. He would help the BJP cross a threshold level of vote share to start winning seats in states like Orissa and Haryana and improve vote share substantially in states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal to make it an attractive pre-poll alliance partner.” (Congress decline: How can BJP benefit. http://bit.ly/RJta6u http://bit.ly/1sZfDVX
Modi’s Role
For the first time in electoral history, BJP alone has polled 31.1% votes nationally which is 7.4% higher than 23.7% polled by the BJP in 1999 in which the BJP won 182 seats. At the barest minimum, this is the vote contribution of Narendra Modi. 1999 performance was when the party was already in government and there was sympathy for it for loss of government by just 1 vote in Parliament and the nationwide patriotic fervour unleashed by the Kargil war. Thus, the accretion in BJP vote share by 7.4% is the “Modi effect” assessed at its minimum.
The Modi effect is better understood when you look at the number of seats that the BJP would have won without Modi and with Modi as the party’s PM candidate. But for Modi’s leadership, in my professional assessment, the BJP would have barely won 142 seats in the present elections and emerged as the single largest party.
By his sheer popularity and public appeal, Narendra Modi has taken the BJP well past the halfway mark by winning an unprecedented tally of 282 seats for the party. The “Modi Factor” has thus added a whopping 140 seats for the BJP alone, besides boosting the electoral prospects of all its old allies like the Shiv Sena, Akali Dal and adding new allies like the TDP and LJP (Paswan).
The state-wise account of how Modi pushed up the BJP tally in different states is given below. This assessment is based on surveys conducted before Modi’s anointment as PM candidate, past performance of the BJP in different elections, recent political developments in different states etc.
MODI FACTOR IN 2014 POLLS
| ||||
STATE*
|
SEATS
|
BJP with Modi as PM nominee
(ACTUAL 2014) |
What BJP would have won without Modi as
PM nominee |
Modi Factor
(No. of Seats) |
| UTTAR PRADESH |
80
|
71
|
15
|
56
|
| KARNATAKA |
28
|
17
|
7
|
10
|
| MAHARASHTRA |
48
|
23
|
13
|
10
|
| BIHAR |
40
|
22
|
12
|
10
|
| DELHI |
7
|
7
|
0
|
7
|
| HARYANA |
10
|
7
|
1
|
6
|
| GUJARAT |
26
|
26
|
20
|
6
|
| ASSAM |
14
|
7
|
2
|
5
|
| RAJASTHAN |
25
|
25
|
21
|
4
|
| JHARKHAND |
14
|
12
|
8
|
4
|
| ANDHRA PRADESH |
42
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
| JAMMU & KASHMIR |
6
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
| MADHYA PRADESH |
29
|
27
|
25
|
2
|
| CHHATTISGARH |
11
|
10
|
8
|
2
|
| UTTARAKHAND |
5
|
5
|
3
|
2
|
| WEST BENGAL |
42
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
| ODISHA |
21
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
| TAMIL NADU |
39
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
| HIMACHAL |
4
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
| PUNJAB |
13
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
| KERALA |
20
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| TOTAL |
524
|
275
|
139
|
136
|
| OTHER STATES/ Uts |
19
|
7
|
3
|
4
|
| All India |
543
|
282
|
142
|
140
|
2014 Election is an extraordinary election. It has so much to offer to the political pundits to decode the meaning of the verdict. But, one thing that cannot be denied is that it was Narendra Modi all the way taking the BJP victory to unimaginable levels and plunging the Congress to the lowest ever depths.
Courtesy : Lens on News
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