The
scheduled meeting of the NSAs of India and Pakistan was cancelled by Islamabad
citing New Delhi's refusal to allow an expanded agenda and involvement of the
Hurriyat in the talks.
Following
the cancellation of talks, Aziz came up with a statement threatening the use of
nuclear weapons by Pakistan.
Pakistan
has pursued its nuclear missile program in a bid to counter India’s
conventional capability
This
threat, that of using nuclear weapons against India, from Pakistan, is not new
and other members of its establishment have made similar statements in the
recent past.
Why does
Pakistan rely heavily on the nuclear threat?
Why does
even something like cancellation of talks, which is an effort towards
normalisation of bilateral relationship, result in a nuclear threat by the
Pakistani establishment?
Terrorism
Islamabad
initiated the development of the nuclear weapon program with full rigour after
the defeat in the 1971 war and the creation of Bangladesh.
A deep
desire to neutralise India's conventional capability and fear of further
disintegration of Pakistan were the most compelling factors for Pakistani
leadership to go nuclear.
The
military has pursued terrorism as a tool against India for four decades now and
nuclear weapons have served as a shield for conducting acts of terror.
Terrorism
in Kashmir and other parts of India such as Punjab accelerated much more after
Pakistan acquired nuclear capability in 1987.
Pakistan
has used nuclear weapons to carry on terrorism on the sly and to prevent a
conventional war.
The
threat of nuclear weapons has been used rather conveniently and frequently by
the Pakistani leadership during times of crisis.
Since the
objective of the nuclear weapons has been to neutralise India’s conventional
capability and also to avoid Indian retaliation to Islamabad's acts of terror,
Pakistan's penchant for the adoption and excessive reliance on “first use”
doctrine was not surprising.
Although
the assertion – that of using nuclear weapons first – has varied with changing
strategic scenarios, Islamabad has very often stated that it could and would
use nuclear weapons as and when it would feel the need.
However,
it did take a stance during the 2000-10 period that use of nuclear weapon would
be the last resort option for Pakistan. What's not clear is what determines
“last resort” for Pakistan?
Arsenal
Pakistan
has the fastest growing nuclear arsenal in the world with reportedly 120
warheads or even more.
With
Chinese assistance, it has also developed land-based ballistic missiles up to
the range of 2,500km, as well as built up the cruise missiles – Babur and
Ra’ad.
It is
very proud of having developed tactical nuclear weapons (Nasr) to be used in
the battlefield to further deter India from any form of conventional
retaliation.
Pakistan
has excessively relied on nuclear weapons for the last three decades and is
likely to continue to do so since it has failed to build other strengths or
overcome its fundamental challenges.
Its most
daunting problems include economic stress, power shortage and rising extremism
in the society.
The
raging insurgency has been difficult for the military to control.
Tehrik-i-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP) has been launching repeated terrorist attacks, despite
military's claim that it has managed to hit the insurgent factions on the
borders with the ongoing major operation – Zarb-e-Azb.
Being
crippled with the inherent problems of extremism, unemployment and low growth,
Pakistan significantly lags behind India on most of the parameters of national
security. Its
excessive reliance on nuclear weapons to project its power emerges from its
weaknesses within. It has
failed to develop any fundamental strength and support its youth, who seem to
be trapped in the culture of violence, terrorism, unemployment and, very
importantly so, an extreme identity crisis.
Until
Pakistan focuses on building its economy with consistent improvement and
investments over a sustained period, its insecurity as a state is unlikely to
go away.
Threats
Repeated
threats of using nuclear weapons are not an answer to deal with internal
weaknesses and challenges. Also,
with India's officially declared doctrine of assured massive retaliation, a
nuclear attack by Pakistan would result in a significant retaliatory nuclear
strike leading to huge destruction in Pakistan. The use
of nuclear threats again and again will also not allow any productive steps in
the direction of normalisation of the hostile relationship between the two
countries.
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