Back to talking

In a significant breakthrough, India-Pakistan dialogue is back on track with foreign minister Sushma Swaraj traveling to Islamabad today to attend a regional conference on Afghanistan. During her visit, Swaraj is slated to hold meetings with Pakistani PM Nawaz Sharif and his foreign affairs adviser Sartaj Aziz. The development comes after quiet parleys between Indian and Pakistani national security advisers and foreign secretaries in Bangkok.

It will be recalled that the thaw between the two sides after the Ufa agreement in July was squandered because of Pakistan’s insistence that the NSA-level talks, slated to discuss terrorism, should include Kashmir as well. This was likely put forward at the behest of the Pakistani army – the real director of Islamabad’s India policy – even though Kashmir is hardly the appropriate topic for NSAs of the two countries to discuss. The issue has been finessed now with NSAs and foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan meeting each other simultaneously in Bangkok, permitting a discussion on both terror and Kashmir.

This stop-start cycle exemplifies New Delhi’s dilemma in talking to Pakistan. Talks are necessary to prevent tensions between the two countries from exploding. Yet authority is split in Pakistan and New Delhi talking to the civilian government causes other centres of authority – the military, the militants as well as the nexus between them – to assert themselves. Thus, a CRPF convoy was attacked in Anantnag district right after the talks. Given that hardline constituencies in both countries get mobilised and try to derail peace talks the moment they are announced, it’s good to hold them outside the glare of publicity. A related benefit is that expectations rise to fever pitch whenever official peace talks are held under the public glare, and the inevitable deflation when intractable issues remain unresolved cements hardliners in their entrenched positions.

It was thus an excellent idea holding the talks outside both countries and announcing them only after they were held – thus laying the ground for Swaraj’s visit and further dialogue. In the same pragmatic vein, New Delhi also needs to accept that the Pakistani army will remain a key determinant in talks. It shouldn’t, therefore, hesitate from opening direct channels of communication with Rawalpindi GHQ. The NDA government is best placed to effect this shift, and overall to improve relations with Pakistan. It has run a pragmatic foreign policy so far and fewer people will question its patriotic credentials.