While the Congress is tying itself in knots in Delhi on the National
Herald issue, silent changes with long-term implications are taking
place in the southern tip of the country. The good old two-front
political circus in Kerala, God’s own country, is likely to see the
curtains coming down on it as corruption charges overwhelm both the
present Congress-led United Democratic Front and the Marxist-led Left
Democratic Front. The powerful Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam
(SNDP) leader Vellappally Natesan has shaken the foundations of the two
fronts in the state by launching a new political party.
Mr.
Natesan the other day announced the formation of Bharat Dharma Jana Sena
(BJDS) to confront both the ruling UDF and the opposition LDF in the
face of recent political developments in the state. Mr. Natesan has led
the largely Ezhava community (the largest OBC in the state) organisation
SNDP for several decades. The Ezhava community has been divided between
the two fronts. Over the last nearly four years of UDF rule, a sea
change has taken place in the state where successful politics meant
striking a balance between the Hindu, Muslim and Christian community
interests.
After the last Assembly election, where the UDF barely
scraped through against the LDF, the League demanded and got its pound
of flesh in the form of an additional seat for its nominee in the
Cabinet led by Congress leader Oommen Chandy, a follower of the Orthodox
Christian faith. The League that already had four seats in the Cabinet
of Mr. Chandy in the 2006-11 government, also got the coveted education
portfolio that presides over several thousand government and aided
schools. The consternation within the two most powerful Hindu community
organisations, the SNDP, representing mostly the largest OBC group, and
the Nair Service Society, the upper class Nairs, was becoming evident
ever since the UDF’s return to power in 2012. From a 60 per cent
majority in the 90s, the Hindu community had shrunk to 51 per cent by
2011.
After the last election to the Kerala Assembly when Mr.
Chandy became the Chief Minister for the second time, the clout of the
Christian groups within the UDF seemed to have grown further. With the
Christian interest seen as gaining the powerful finance portfolio
through Kerala Congress leader KM Mani and the Muslim interest grabbing
the powerful education under the leadership of Congress’ Mr. Chandy, the
consternation within the Hindu supporters of the Congress was surfacing
day by day.
Last year, Chief Minister Oommen Chandy virtually
threw a political bombshell by suddenly announcing total prohibition
starting with sharp reduction in liquor shops, banning serving of the
IMFL in bars except for foreign tourists in five-star hotels and
shutting down beer parlours that had proliferated. It was widely
discussed in the state political circles that he was forced to take this
decision by the Christian bishops’ organisation Kerala Catholic Bishops
Conference.
The state’s excise revenue that was around `400
crores in the 90s had shot up to over `4,000 crores by 2013 and
alcoholism became the curse of the 100 per cent educated state
population. When controversy broke out on the wisdom of this decision
and its timing, the Christian bishops were the first to come forward to
support the beleaguered Chief Minister and opposed any dilution of the
strict prohibition proposal. This strengthened public apprehension that
the real reason for Mr. Chandy to take the plunge was not concern over
the rising graph of alcoholism among the populace but appeasement of the
Christian clergy.
However, the prohibition decision seems to have
become the UDF government’s undoing. The victims of rising alcoholism
might have been from the Christian communities — the reason why the
bishops were insisting on prohibition despite the huge loss of revenue
for the state. For a large number of toddy shops and beer parlours and
hotels in the number one tourist industry state, the decision meant loss
of business and unemployment for the employees.
In a series of
swift political developments, the bar owners’ association working
president Biju claimed he had given `2 crore as bribe to Finance
Minister and Kerala Congress (M) leader Mani even as the cabinet took a
decision to dilute the prohibition decision under the Kerala High Court
order.
It was in this context that the local body elections were
held. UDF was scarred badly in these elections. The LDF gained; the
pattern of results revealed that significant sections of OBCs, poorer
among the Christians and Muslims, had voted against the UDF leading to
gains for the LDF and the BJP. BJP’s vote percentage zoomed to 16 per
cent. Even in the 2014 General Elections, the BJP had increased its vote
and though it did not get any Lok Sabha seat from the state, the fact
it came second in the prestigious Thiruvananthapuram LS constituency,
became a sign of the wind blowing in the direction of majoritarian
consolidation. It is in this context that OBC leader Mr. Natesan’s new
party has emerged and has received considerable popular support.
The
reaction of the League in this context is also another indicator that
fresh winds are blowing in the state. Political circles expect Mr.
Natesan’s party to gain in strength as its goodwill ‘yatra’ proceeds
across the state. The panic within the UDF is visible in the decision of
the League to launch its own statewide programme and the Congress also
in with its own version of the ‘yatra.’
The corruption charges
are, meanwhile, mounting. The vigilance court has ordered a quick
enquiry against another UDF minister, this time from the Congress, K
Babu, about the accusation that he too was the recipient of a bribe from
the bar owners’ association working president Biju Ramesh. The
court-ordered enquiry is also against Biju whom the Congress leaders
have accused of changing his version of bribing both Mani and Babu
several times and even evading summons of the vigilance probe in the
enquiry regarding the alleged bribe given to Mani.
Significantly,
the court rejected the government plea that the enquiry into the bribery
charge against Minister Babu had already been done once and hence, a
second enquiry was not necessary.
The enquiry had also found no
evidence to prove the charge as in the case of Mani. To add to Mr.
Chandy’s woes, his own alleged support for the solar scam accused lady,
Sarita Nair, has also resurfaced. With the credibility of Mr Chandy and
his government at the lowest ebb, and the rise of Hindu majority,
particularly OBCs and Dalits’ anger against the Congress-led UDF
evident, Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Kerala and his unveiling of the
statue of R Sankar, the great OBC Congress CM of the 60s and scheduled
meetings with several groups like the Shivagiri Mutt founded by Sree
Narayana Guru, the inspiration behind the SNDP, have been interpreted as
the so-called lower castes, including Dalits, moving towards the BJP.
In
any case, the UDF is not set to see another term in office when
elections are held in 2016 and BJP with Natesan’s party in tow might
make a significant dent in the two-front politics of Kerala.
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