2015, Modi government must deliver on growth and governance in 2016
If 2014 was the year of the Modi wave, then 2015
was the year when the promise and hope of that unprecedented electoral
triumph came face to face with the grim realities of governance in
Delhi, the emergence of new political challenges, and the gap between
promise and delivery.
Electorally, last year was book-ended by BJP’s wipe-out in Delhi by
AAP and the rout at the hands of the Nitish-Lalu coalition in Bihar.
Politics enters 2016 with the lesson that opposition unity can stump the
BJP juggernaut. Already, there are signs of new realignments, with
Arvind Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee and Nitish Kumar emerging as the
possible fulcrum of a joint opposition pincer. Rahul Gandhi may not have
recovered lost ground but Congress recovered its voice in 2015. Its
surprise result in Bihar where it sublimated itself to regional players
and gained a windfall holds out a template.
Five assembly polls are due in 2016: West Bengal, Tamil Nadu,
Puducherry, Assam and Kerala. BJP is expected to be a key player only in
Assam and while the party goes back to the drawing board on electoral
strategy, politically it is time for the central government to hunker
down to the nuts and bolts of delivery.
Economically, on the positive side of the ledger, India remains the
fastest growing economy among major countries. Yet, growth has been
slower than expected, profit after tax for the corporate sector remained
largely flat in 2015, there has been a sharp fall in exports, and the
banking sector remains under stress due to the problem of non-performing
assets despite some measures to address it.
The mid-year analysis for 2015-16 by the Economic Division in the
Ministry of Finance indicates that the Indian economy is now running
like a car on two wheels: private consumption and government investment.
The other two wheels, private investment and exports, are lagging
behind. While road building has increased and schemes for startups hold
promise, job creation and rural wage growth will be key issues in 2016.
The 2016 budget will therefore be crucial. It must prove to be the
‘transformational’ budget that was promised but not delivered this year.
Equally important is the GST Bill that has remained hostage to
parliamentary disruption despite broad political consensus on it. While
Congress is now paying BJP back in its coin with the politics of
obstruction in opposition, political parties must find a way of doing
crucial business in Parliament and it will be up to the government to
take the lead. In this too, the new year will be a critical test for
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government.
Diplomatically, India had a good 2015, capped off by Modi’s surprise
visit to Lahore to meet Nawaz Sharif. A new beginning with Islamabad is a
welcome note to end a year that saw the borders with Bangladesh finally
being settled, India standing shoulder to shoulder with Nepal after its
massive earthquake, and issues around Nepal’s constitution finally
showing signs of resolution. India was also seen, along with the US and
China, powering the final agreement on climate change in Paris. And the
prime minister’s own personal brand of diplomacy was seen pushing Indian
interests from Abu Dhabi to Washington.
In sports, this was the year of Sania Mirza who became World No. 1in
tennis doubles with Martina Hingis, Saina Nehwal continuing her dizzying
spell at the top of the badminton world, and the end of the Srinivasan
era in BCCI. The IPL clean-up was a much-needed corrective. Politics
aside, the current AAP-BJP fighting over the mess in DDCA shows how much
more needs to be done to clean our cricket. This year also saw the
beginning of the end of the Dhoni era, with Virat Kohli making a good
start as Test captain.
Above all, this was a year in which India vehemently discussed
tolerance after the killing of Dadri’s Mohammad Akhlaq on rumours of
beef-eating. The debate that followed, including award wapsi by many
writers, drew in everyone from President Pranab Mukherjee who reiterated
tolerance as the bedrock of Indian civilisation to Narayana Murthy,
Raghuram Rajan and leading cultural figures like Aamir and Shah Rukh
Khan, all of whom weighed in on the inherent meaning of Indian-ness.
Irrespective of the politics, the underlying message for 2016 is clear:
In unity and tolerance lies the heart of India. The politics of hate
benefits no one.
No comments:
Post a Comment