On 20th December, the
Nepal Cabinet finally decided to move for constitutional amendments supposedly
to please the marginalised communities including the Madhes groups. The Deputy
Prime Minister Kamal Thapa called up his Indian counterpart to inform her of
the good news the same night. India was delighted.
Everyone appears to be happy except
the affected Madhes groups who are now left to fend for themselves without
knowing what had hit them!
The Cabinet Decisions:
On 20th afternoon, PM
Oli’s cabinet decided to move for constitutional amendments and described it in
a “three point” road map. This included
*
The Government declaring its commitment to participation in the State Organs on
the basis of proportionate inclusion and the delineation of electoral constituencies
on the basis of the population besides ensuring of at least one constituency in
each district.
*
Appropriate constitutional arrangement will be made through political consensus
regarding the boundaries of the federal units by addressing the concerns of the
agitating parties.
*
A mechanism will be formed to redress the concerns and a report will be
submitted within three months. A solution will be sought through talks on
other demands including those related to citizenship.
Soon after Kamal Thapa’s call, India
issued a formal statement welcoming the developments as positive that will help
create the basis for a resolution of the current impasse in Nepal. India
also urged all the Nepali political groups to find a satisfactory
solution.
The issues relating to delineation
of electoral constituencies and the inclusive and proportionate participation
was already conceded soon after the announcement of the new constitution by the
Sushil Koirala led Government.
The addition is the third one- of a
high level political mechanism to consider the delineation of boundaries of the
federal units through a consensus with a report to be given within three
months.
The third point is as vague as it
could be and it looks like a play of words to save the faces of all the stake
holders- most probably the three main political parties and India too.
We know that it took eight long
years to draft a constitution and that too without any consensus. It was
promulgated without consultations or approval of representatives of over forty
percent of the population.
If we go by past history when an
elusive consensus was not possible for the new constitution even after eight
long years, it is very doubtful whether any report could emerge within three
months as mandated by the cabinet. What is more- a political consensus
can only be a theoretical possibility and nothing else.
Reaction of Madhes Groups:
The UDMF groups representing the
agitating Madhes Groups that met on 22nd December rejected the
proposals though they kept the door open for further talks. They said
that the proposal did not address the 11 point demands of the Madhes Groups
that were conceded by the earlier government. The three point road map
did not consider the issues of equal citizenship and linguistic rights that were
the main basis of demands of the groups. The bottom line of delineation
of boundaries of the federal was also left vague with an undefined political
mechanism that is supposed take care of the concerns of the Madhes groups.
The UDMF group pointed out that a
day after the meeting, Prime Minister Oli in a meeting in Jhapa declared that
Jhapa, Morang and Sunsari will not be split. It looked as if Oli wanted
to jump the gun in briefing the High level mechanism to be formed by the
government not to split the three of the five disputed districts (the other two
are Kailali and Kanchanpur in the west).
The Madhes Groups appear to be very
disappointed with the developments. What is offered now is not different
from what was conceded by the Koirala government when the amendment to the
constitution including the draft was ready to be moved. It was the change
of the government and the obstinacy of Oli’s government that delayed the
amendments. Meanwhile many lives were unfortunately lost since the promulgation.
The Indian welcome of the amendments
was also surprising as nothing has changed in the narrative and even the
“political mechanism” was suggested by the Nepali Congress leadership in their
talks with the agitating groups much earlier and rejected by the agitating
groups.
Terai Continues to be Tense
Many areas in Madhes continue to be
tense. There is a three-day curfew in Rautahat after one youth was killed
by Police firing. Two other districts- Birgunj (Parsa?) and Sarlahi have
serious law and order problems.
The attitude of the Police has also
not changed and they continue to be harsh in dealing with the agitators.
The firing incident at Gaur resulting in the death of one youth was
avoidable.
One should recall the statement of
the spokesperson of UNHCR in end November that urged the Nepali authorities to
follow international standards on use of force, respect dissenting voices and
engage them with “meaningful, inclusive and an open dialogue”- unfortunately
these steps have not been taken and more lives have been lost, she said.
Conclusion:
* The Madhes population and
particularly the Madhesi leaders must have felt let down by the new government
of Nepal led by UML chief K.P. Oli.
* If the package now offered with
amendments for meeting two of the demands of the agitating groups with a very
vague assurance of the third one- viz delineation of the federal boundaries was
the final stand of the government, then there was no need for an agitation that
involved disruption of normal life both in Terai and Kathmandu valley and
resulting loss of life of over fifty persons in the agitation so far. There was
no need for talks either.
*. Prime Minister Oli has
stuck to his ground and has not conceded anything despite the agitation.
It is doubtful whether he would allow any further concession -High level
mechanism not withstanding or by any other means. His mind set could be
gauged by his speech at Jhapa after the cabinet meeting where in a public
meeting he assured the people that there will be no split up of the three
eastern districts.
* Madhesi leaders are said to be
disappointed. Had it not been for India’s indirect support to their
perceived just cause, the agitation would not have dragged on for over hundred
days. The resultant deaths and economic deprivation were avoidable.
Here is a lesson for Terains too- to keep united and not depend on any external
sources for support. For India- Indian interests are more important than the
Terain interests and those in Madhes should by now have realised it
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